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ABSTRACTMany heterodox strands of thought share both a concern with the study of different phases or growth regimes in the history of capitalism and the use of formal short-run models as an analytical tool. This text suggests that: (1) this strategy is potentially misleading; (2) that the stock-flow consistent (SFC) approach, while providing a general framework that may facilitate the dialogue among those currents, is particularly well suited to all those who think that macroeconomic models may illuminate historical quests; and (3) this approach's main intuitions may be conveyed through the "benchmark" Post Keynesian SFC model presented by Dos Santos and Zezza (2008), dispensing with the complex computer simulations that are normally employed by SFC authors.
Supermultiplier models have been recently brought to the post-Keynesian debate. Yet these models still rely on quite simple economic assumptions, being mostly flow models which omit the financial determinants of autonomous expenditures. Since the output growth rate converges in the long run to the exogenously given growth rate of "non-capacity creating" autonomous expenditure and the utilization rate moves towards the normal utilization rate, the paradoxes of thrift and costs remain valid only as level effects (average growth rates). This paper investigates whether the core conclusions of supermultiplier models hold in a more complex economic framework, described by means of a supermultiplier SFC model, in which private business investment is assumed to be completely induced by income while the autonomous expenditure component-in this case consumption out of wealth-becomes endogenous. The results of the numerical simulation experiments suggest that the paradox of thrift can remain valid in terms of growth effects and that a lower profit share can also be associated to a higher accumulation rate, though with a lower profit rate.
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Este artigo apresenta uma metodologia simplificada de estimação, em bases trimestrais, das transferências governamentais e da carga tributária líquida da economia brasileira no período 1995-2009. O artigo descreve, ainda, os principais fatos estilizados observados no comportamento das referidas séries (e de desagregações relevantes destas) no período em questão, chamando a atenção para o fato de que o perfil distributivo das transferências de assistência e previdência do governo parece ter melhorado nos últimos anos.
This paper presents a supermultiplier stock–flow consistent model of economic growth led by debt-financed consumption of workers. In so doing it tries to shed light on the financial requirements of growth trajectories based on induced investment. The model explicitly derives the aggregate financial needs of both workers and firms and how these needs can be met by the banking sector – mapping out all the stock and flow implications of the assumed financial transactions for all sectors of the economy at hand. An analytic solution for the nature of the steady states of the model is then provided and its dynamic properties analysed by means of computer simulations.
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