Abstract:A new short-term probabilistic forecasting method is proposed to predict the probability density function of the hourly active power generated by a photovoltaic system. Firstly, the probability density function of the hourly clearness index is forecasted making use of a Bayesian auto regressive time series model; the model takes into account the dependence of the solar radiation on some meteorological variables, such as the cloud cover and humidity. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation procedure is used to evaluate the predictive probability density function of the hourly active power by applying the photovoltaic system model to the random sampling of the clearness index distribution. A numerical application demonstrates the effectiveness and advantages of the proposed forecasting method.
Abstract-The International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) standards characterize the waveform distortions in power systems with the amplitudes of harmonic and interharmonic groups and subgroups. These groups/subgroups utilize the waveform spectral components obtained from a fixed frequencyresolution discrete Fourier transform (DFT). Using the IEC standards allows for a compromise among the different goals, such as the needs for accuracy, simplification, and unification. In some cases, however, the power-system waveforms are characterized by spectral components that the DFT cannot capture with enough accuracy due to the fixed frequency resolution and/or the spectral leakage phenomenon. This paper investigates the possibility of a group/subgroup evaluation using the following advanced spectrum estimation methods: adaptive Prony, estimation of signal parameters via rotational invariance techniques, and root MUltiple-SIgnal Classification (MUSIC). These adaptive methods use variable lengths of time windows of analysis to ensure the best fit of the waveforms; they are not characterized by the fixed frequency resolution and do not suffer from the spectral leakage phenomenon. This paper also presents the results of the applications of these methods to three test waveforms, to current and voltage waveforms obtained from simulations of a real dc arc-furnace plant, and to waveforms measured at the point of common coupling of the low-voltage network supplying a high-performance laser printer.Index Terms-DC arc furnaces, discrete Fourier transform (DFT), estimation of signal parameters via the rotational invariance techniques (ESPRIT) method, Prony method, root MUltipleSIgnal Classification (MUSIC) method, spectrum estimation, subspace methods, waveform-distortion analysis.
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