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Optimizing the schedule of thermal generators is probably the most important task when the operation of power systems is managed. This issue is known as the unit commitment problem in operational research. It has been profoundly studied in the literature, where several techniques have been proposed to address a computationally tractable solution. In turn, the ongoing changes of paradigms in energy markets focus the attention on the unit commitment problem as a powerful tool to handle new trends, such as the high renewable energy sources penetration or widespread use of non-conventional energy-storage technologies. A review on the unit commitment problem is propo- sed in this paper. The easy understanding of the diverse techniques applied in the literature for new researchers is the main goal of this state-of-art as well as identifying the research gaps that could be susceptible to further developments. Moreover, an overview of the evolution of the Mixed Integer Linear Programming formulation regarding the improvements of commercial solvers is presented, according to its prevailing hegemony when the unit commitment problem is addressed. Finally, an accurate analysis of modeling detail, power system representation, and computational performance of the case studies is presented. This characterization entails a significant development against the conventional reviews, which only offer a broad vision of the modeling scope of their citations at most.

Abstract:One of the most relevant challenges that have arisen in electricity markets during the last few years is the emergence of extremely low prices. Trying to predict these events is crucial for market agents in a competitive environment. This paper proposes a novel methodology to simultaneously accomplish punctual and probabilistic hourly predictions about the appearance of extremely low electricity prices in a medium-term scope. The proposed approach for making real ex ante forecasts consists of a nested compounding of different forecasting techniques, which incorporate Monte Carlo simulation, combined with spatial interpolation techniques. The procedure is based on the statistical identification of the process key drivers. Logistic regression for rare events, decision trees, multilayer perceptrons and a hybrid approach, which combines a market equilibrium model with logistic regression, are used. Moreover, this paper assesses whether periodic models in which parameters switch according to the day of the week can be even more accurate. The proposed techniques are compared to a Markov regime switching model and several naive methods. The proposed methodology empirically demonstrates its effectiveness by achieving promising results on a real case study based on the Spanish electricity market. This approach can provide valuable information for market agents when they face decision making and risk-management processes. Our findings support the additional benefit of using a hybrid approach for deriving more accurate predictions.