Critical care, like many healthcare areas, is under a dual assault from significantly increasing demographic and economic pressures. Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are highly variable in response to treatment, and increasingly aging populations mean ICUs are under increasing demand and their cohorts are increasingly ill. Equally, patient expectations are growing, while the economic ability to deliver care to all is declining. Better, more productive care is thus the big challenge. One means to that end is personalised care designed to manage the significant inter- and intra-patient variability that makes the ICU patient difficult. Thus, moving from current “one size fits all” protocolised care to adaptive, model-based “one method fits all” personalised care could deliver the required step change in the quality, and simultaneously the productivity and cost, of care. Computer models of human physiology are a unique tool to personalise care, as they can couple clinical data with mathematical methods to create subject-specific models and virtual patients to design new, personalised and more optimal protocols, as well as to guide care in real-time. They rely on identifying time varying patient-specific parameters in the model that capture inter- and intra-patient variability, the difference between patients and the evolution of patient condition. Properly validated, virtual patients represent the real patients, and can be used in silico to test different protocols or interventions, or in real-time to guide care. Hence, the underlying models and methods create the foundation for next generation care, as well as a tool for safely and rapidly developing personalised treatment protocols over large virtual cohorts using virtual trials. This review examines the models and methods used to create virtual patients. Specifically, it presents the models types and structures used and the data required. It then covers how to validate the resulting virtual patients and trials, and how these virtual trials can help design and optimise clinical trial. Links between these models and higher order, more complex physiome models are also discussed. In each section, it explores the progress reported up to date, especially on core ICU therapies in glycemic, circulatory and mechanical ventilation management, where high cost and frequency of occurrence provide a significant opportunity for model-based methods to have measurable clinical and economic impact. The outcomes are readily generalised to other areas of medical care.

Total stressed blood volume is an important parameter for both doctors and engineers. From a medical point of view, it has been associated with the success or failure of fluid therapy, a primary treatment to manage acute circulatory failure. From an engineering point of view, it dictates the cardiovascular system's behaviour in changing physiological situations. Current methods to determine this parameter involve repeated phases of circulatory arrests followed by fluid administration. In this work, a more straightforward method is developed using data from a preload reduction manoeuvre. A simple six-chamber cardiovascular system model is used and its parameters are adjusted to pig experimental data. The parameter adjustment process has three steps: (1) compute nominal values for all model parameters; (2) determine the five most sensitive parameters; and (3) adjust only these five parameters. Stressed blood volume was selected by the algorithm, which emphasizes the importance of this parameter. The model was able to track experimental trends with a maximal root mean squared error of 29.2 %. Computed stressed blood volume equals 486 ± 117 ml or 15.7 ± 3.6 ml/kg, which matches previous independent experiments on pigs, dogs and humans. The method proposed in this work thus provides a simple way to compute total stressed blood volume from usual hemodynamic data.

This work presented the practical identifiability analysis of a seven-parameter cardiovascular system model, from limited clinical data. The analysis showed that three of the seven parameters were practically non-identifiable, thus limiting the use of the model as a monitoring tool. Slight changes in the time-varying function modeling cardiac contraction and use of larger values for the reference range of venous pressure made the model fully practically identifiable.

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BackgroundThe end-systolic pressure-volume relationship is often considered as a load-independent property of the heart and, for this reason, is widely used as an index of ventricular contractility. However, many criticisms have been expressed against this index and the underlying time-varying elastance theory: first, it does not consider the phenomena underlying contraction and second, the end-systolic pressure volume relationship has been experimentally shown to be load-dependent.MethodsIn place of the time-varying elastance theory, a microscopic model of sarcomere contraction is used to infer the pressure generated by the contraction of the left ventricle, considered as a spherical assembling of sarcomere units. The left ventricle model is inserted into a closed-loop model of the cardiovascular system. Finally, parameters of the modified cardiovascular system model are identified to reproduce the hemodynamics of a normal dog.ResultsExperiments that have proven the limitations of the time-varying elastance theory are reproduced with our model: (1) preload reductions, (2) afterload increases, (3) the same experiments with increased ventricular contractility, (4) isovolumic contractions and (5) flow-clamps. All experiments simulated with the model generate different end-systolic pressure-volume relationships, showing that this relationship is actually load-dependent. Furthermore, we show that the results of our simulations are in good agreement with experiments.ConclusionsWe implemented a multi-scale model of the cardiovascular system, in which ventricular contraction is described by a detailed sarcomere model. Using this model, we successfully reproduced a number of experiments that have shown the failing points of the time-varying elastance theory. In particular, the developed multi-scale model of the cardiovascular system can capture the load-dependence of the end-systolic pressure-volume relationship.

During a full cardiac cycle, the left atrium successively behaves as a reservoir, a conduit and a pump. This complex behavior makes it unrealistic to apply the time-varying elastance theory to characterize the left atrium, first, because this theory has known limitations, and second, because it is still uncertain whether the load independence hypothesis holds. In this study, we aim to bypass this uncertainty by relying on another kind of mathematical model of the cardiac chambers. In the present work, we describe both the left atrium and the left ventricle with a multi-scale model. The multi-scale property of this model comes from the fact that pressure inside a cardiac chamber is derived from a model of the sarcomere behavior. Macroscopic model parameters are identified from reference dog hemodynamic data. The multi-scale model of the cardiovascular system including the left atrium is then simulated to show that the physiological roles of the left atrium are correctly reproduced. This include a biphasic pressure wave and an eight-shaped pressure-volume loop. We also test the validity of our model in non basal conditions by reproducing a preload reduction experiment by inferior vena cava occlusion with the model. We compute the variation of eight indices before and after this experiment and obtain the same variation as experimentally observed for seven out of the eight indices. In summary, the multi-scale mathematical model presented in this work is able to correctly account for the three roles of the left atrium and also exhibits a realistic left atrial pressure-volume loop. Furthermore, the model has been previously presented and validated for the left ventricle. This makes it a proper alternative to the time-varying elastance theory if the focus is set on precisely representing the left atrial and left ventricular behaviors.

The overall analysis shows PAT is an unreliable measure of PTT and a poor surrogate under clinical interventions common in a critical care setting, due to intra- and inter- subject variability in PEP.

BackgroundPressure contour analysis is commonly used to estimate cardiac performance for patients suffering from cardiovascular dysfunction in the intensive care unit. However, the existing techniques for continuous estimation of stroke volume (SV) from pressure measurement can be unreliable during hemodynamic instability, which is inevitable for patients requiring significant treatment. For this reason, pressure contour methods must be improved to capture changes in vascular properties and thus provide accurate conversion from pressure to flow.MethodsThis paper presents a novel pressure contour method utilizing pulse wave velocity (PWV) measurement to capture vascular properties. A three-element Windkessel model combined with the reservoir–wave concept are used to decompose the pressure contour into components related to storage and flow. The model parameters are identified beat-to-beat from the water-hammer equation using measured PWV, wave component of the pressure, and an estimate of subject-specific aortic dimension. SV is then calculated by converting pressure to flow using identified model parameters. The accuracy of this novel method is investigated using data from porcine experiments (N = 4 Pietrain pigs, 20–24.5 kg), where hemodynamic properties were significantly altered using dobutamine, fluid administration, and mechanical ventilation. In the experiment, left ventricular volume was measured using admittance catheter, and aortic pressure waveforms were measured at two locations, the aortic arch and abdominal aorta.ResultsBland–Altman analysis comparing gold-standard SV measured by the admittance catheter and estimated SV from the novel method showed average limits of agreement of ±26% across significant hemodynamic alterations. This result shows the method is capable of estimating clinically acceptable absolute SV values according to Critchely and Critchely.ConclusionThe novel pressure contour method presented can accurately estimate and track SV even when hemodynamic properties are significantly altered. Integrating PWV measurements into pressure contour analysis improves identification of beat-to-beat changes in Windkessel model parameters, and thus, provides accurate estimate of blood flow from measured pressure contour. The method has great potential for overcoming weaknesses associated with current pressure contour methods for estimating SV.