Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) breeders consider a large number of traits during cultivar development and progress in conventional breeding can be slow. There is accumulating evidence that some of these traits, such as yield, are affected by a large number of genes with small individual effects. Recently, significant efforts have been applied to the development of genomic resources to improve potato breeding, culminating in a draft genome sequence and the identification of a large number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). The availability of these genome-wide SNPs is a prerequisite for implementing genomic selection for improvement of polygenic traits such as yield. In this review, we investigate opportunities for the application of genomic selection to potato, including novel breeding program designs. We have considered a number of factors that will influence this process, including the autotetraploid and heterozygous genetic nature of potato, the rate of decay of linkage disequilibrium, the number of required markers, the design of a reference population, and trait heritability. Based on estimates of the effective population size derived from a potato breeding program, we have calculated the expected accuracy of genomic selection for four key traits of varying heritability and propose that it will be reasonably accurate. We compared the expected genetic gain from genomic selection with the expected gain from phenotypic and pedigree selection, and found that genetic gain can be substantially improved by using genomic selection.

Best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP), which uses pedigree to estimate breeding values, can result in increased genetic gains for low heritability traits in autotetraploid potato. Conventional potato breeding strategies, based on outcrossing followed by phenotypic recurrent selection over a number of generations, can result in slow but steady improvements of traits with moderate to high heritability. However, faster gains, particularly for low heritability traits, could be made by selection on estimated breeding values (EBVs) calculated using more complete pedigree information in best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) analysis. One complication in applying BLUP predictions of breeding value to potato breeding programs is the autotetraploid inheritance pattern of this species. Here we have used a large pedigree, dating back to 1908, to estimate heritability for nine key traits for potato breeding, modelling autotetraploid inheritance. We estimate the proportion of double reduction in potatoes from our data, and across traits, to be in the order of 10 %. Estimates of heritability ranged from 0.21 for breeder's visual preference, 0.58 for tuber yield, to 0.83 for plant maturity. Using the accuracies of the EBVs determined by cross generational validation, we model the genetic gain that could be achieved by selection of genotypes for breeding on BLUP EBVs and demonstrate that gains can be greater than in conventional schemes.

Potatoes are highly heterozygous and the conventional breeding of superior germplasm is challenging, but use of a combination of MAS and EBVs can accelerate genetic gain. Cultivated potatoes are highly heterozygous due to their outbreeding nature, and suffer acute inbreeding depression. Modern potato cultivars also exhibit tetrasomic inheritance. Due to this genetic heterogeneity, the large number of target traits and the specific requirements of commercial cultivars, potato breeding is challenging. A conventional breeding strategy applies phenotypic recurrent selection over a number of generations, a process which can take over 10 years. Recently, major advances in genetics and molecular biology have provided breeders with molecular tools to accelerate gains for some traits. Marker-assisted selection (MAS) can be effectively used for the identification of major genes and quantitative trait loci that exhibit large effects. There are also a number of complex traits of interest, such as yield, that are influenced by a large number of genes of individual small effect where MAS will be difficult to deploy. Progeny testing and the use of pedigree in the analysis can provide effective identification of the superior genetic factors that underpin these complex traits. Recently, it has been shown that estimated breeding values (EBVs) can be developed for complex potato traits. Using a combination of MAS and EBVs for simple and complex traits can lead to a significant reduction in the length of the breeding cycle for the identification of superior germplasm.