We analyse whether estimated multiplier effects are systematically higher if the economy suffers a downturn. For that purpose, we conduct a meta-regression analysis on a unique data set of 98 empirical studies with more than 1800 observations on multiplier effects and control for regimedependence of the multiplier. We find that spending multipliers are much higher (by about 0.7-0.9 units) during a downturn. Tax multipliers are not sensitive to the economic regime, and generally lower than spending multipliers. Finally, for all spending categories other than government consumption, the multiplier significantly exceeds one during downturns.

By combining the approaches of Gertler and Karadi (2011) (GK) and Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist (1999) (BGG), I develop a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with leverage constraints both in the banking and in the nonfinancial firm sector. I calibrate this “full model” to US data. The full model matches the relative volatility of the external finance premium and the procyclicality of bank leverage and thus outperforms both a BGG and a GK‐type model. For a reasonably calibrated combination of balance sheet shocks, the model reproduces a substantial share of the contraction (increase) of investment (the external finance premium) observed during the “Great Recession.”

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