Aims/hypothesis Our aim was to determine whether a range of prespecified retinal vessel traits were associated with incident diabetic retinopathy in adults with type 2 diabetes. Methods In the prospective observational cohort Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study of 1066 adults with type 2 diabetes, aged 60–75 years at recruitment, 718 were free from diabetic retinopathy at baseline. Baseline retinal traits including vessel widths, tortuosity (curvature) and fractal dimensions (network complexity), were quantified using fundus camera images and semiautomated software, and analysed using logistic regression for their association with incident diabetic retinopathy over 10 years. Results The incidence of diabetic retinopathy was 11.4% (n = 82) over 10 years. After adjustment for a range of vascular and diabetes-related risk factors, both increased venular tortuosity (OR 1.51; 95% CI 1.15, 1.98; p = 0.003) and decreased fractal dimension (OR 0.75; 95% CI 0.58, 0.96; p = 0.025) were associated with incident retinopathy. There was no evidence of an association with arterial tortuosity, and associations between measurements of vessel widths and retinopathy lost statistical significance after adjustment for diabetes-related factors and vascular disease. Adding venular tortuosity to a model including established risk factors for diabetic retinopathy (HbA1c, BP and kidney function) improved the discriminative ability (C statistic increased from 0.624 to 0.640, p = 0.013), but no such benefit was found with fractal dimension. Conclusions/interpretation Increased retinal venular tortuosity and decreased fractal dimension are associated with incident diabetic retinopathy, independent of classical risk factors. There is some evidence that venular tortuosity may be a useful biomarker to improve the predictive ability of models based on established retinopathy risk factors, and its inclusion in further risk prediction modelling is warranted. Graphical abstract

Aims/hypothesis We aimed to determine the association of depression with dementia risk in people with type 2 diabetes, and to explore the possible mediating role of inflammation in this relationship. Methods The Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study is a prospective cohort of 1066 men and women with type 2 diabetes aged 60–75 years. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to investigate the association between depression, assessed at baseline, and subsequent risk of dementia over 10 years. Depression was defined using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, while incident dementia was defined using medical records, prescription data and death certificates. The potential mediating effect of systemic inflammation was assessed by adjusting models for a generalised inflammation factor, derived from four inflammatory markers measured at baseline (C-reactive protein, IL-6, TNF-α and fibrinogen), and carrying out an exploratory mediation analysis. Results Dementia developed in 105 participants over a median follow-up of 10.6 years. After adjusting for age and sex, depression was associated with over a 2.5-fold increase in risk of dementia (HR 2.59 [95% CI 1.62, 4.15]). Additional adjustment for the generalised inflammation factor and other covariates did not attenuate the size of association between depression and incident dementia and mediation analysis showed that it was not a mediator. Adjusted logistic regression models showed cross-sectional associations of C-reactive protein and IL-6 with depression. Conclusions/interpretation Depression is an important risk factor for dementia in people with type 2 diabetes. Some inflammatory markers were associated with depression, but systemic inflammation does not appear to mediate the relationship between depression and dementia.

Aims/hypothesis We aimed to determine the longitudinal association of circulating markers of systemic inflammation with subsequent long-term cognitive change in older people with type 2 diabetes. Methods The Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study is a prospective cohort study of 1066 adults aged 60 to 75 years with type 2 diabetes. Baseline data included C-reactive protein, IL-6, TNF-α fibrinogen and neuropsychological testing on major cognitive domains. Cognitive testing was repeated after 10 years in 581 participants. A general cognitive ability score was derived from the battery of seven individual cognitive tests using principal component analysis. Linear regression was used to determine longitudinal associations between baseline inflammatory markers and cognitive outcomes at follow-up, with baseline cognitive test results included as covariables to model cognitive change over time. Results Following adjustment for age, sex and baseline general cognitive ability, higher baseline fibrinogen and IL-6 were associated with greater decline in general cognitive ability (standardised βs = −0.059, p=0.032 and −0.064, p=0.018, respectively). These associations lost statistical significance after adjustment for baseline vascular and diabetes-related covariables. When assessing associations with individual cognitive tests, higher IL-6 was associated with greater decline in tests of executive function and abstract reasoning (standardised βs = 0.095, p=0.006 and −0.127, p=0.001, respectively). Similarly, raised fibrinogen and C-reactive protein levels were associated with greater decline in processing speed (standardised βs = −0.115, p=0.001 and −0.111, p=0.001, respectively). These associations remained statistically significant after adjustment for the diabetes- and vascular-related risk factors. Conclusions/interpretation Higher baseline levels of inflammatory markers, including plasma IL-6, fibrinogen and C-reactive protein, were associated with subsequent cognitive decline in older people with type 2 diabetes. At least some of this association appeared to be specific to certain cognitive domains and to be independent of vascular and diabetes-related risk factors. Graphical abstract

Aims/hypothesisTo determine the relationship of dementia with preceding body mass index (BMI), changes in body weight and waist circumference in older people with type 2 diabetes MethodsIn the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study (1064 men and women with type 2 diabetes, aged 60-75), body weight, waist circumference and BMI were measured at baseline and after 4 years in a sub-group (n=821). Percentage body weight and waist circumference change over four years were calculated. Data on incident dementia was recorded during a median follow up time of 10.84 years. Survival models considering a range of co-variables and/or death as a competing risk, were used to estimate the risks of dementia associated with each weight-related variable. ResultsA total of 105 incident dementia events were recorded. When compared with people in the lowest BMI group (<25 kg/m 2 ), risk of dementia was lower in intermediate BMI groups (25-29.9 kg/m 2 , HR 0.44, p=0.002; 30-34.9 kg/m 2 , HR 0.41, p=0.001) and the highest BMI group (≧35 kg/m 2 , HR 0.35, p=0.001). In the weight change subgroup, 78 incident dementia events were recorded between years four and ten.Body weight loss over 5% (compared with ≦5%) was associated with higher incidence of dementia (HR 2.06, p=0.010). The association between waist circumference change and dementia was not significant. Conclusions/InterpretationsBoth a lower BMI and weight loss over a period of years are indicative of increased dementia risk for older people with type 2 diabetes, while waist circumference changes may be less informative.