Improved methods are required for investigating the systemic metabolic effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection and patient stratification for precision treatment. We aimed to develop an effective method using lipid profiles for discriminating between SARS-CoV-2 infection, healthy controls, and non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infections. Targeted liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry lipid profiling was performed on discovery (20 SARS-CoV-2-positive; 37 healthy controls; 22 COVID-19 symptoms but SARS-CoV-2negative) and validation (312 SARS-CoV-2-positive; 100 healthy controls) cohorts. Orthogonal projection to latent structure-discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA) and Kruskal–Wallis tests were applied to establish discriminant lipids, significance, and effect size, followed by logistic regression to evaluate classification performance. OPLS-DA reported separation of SARS-CoV-2 infection from healthy controls in the discovery cohort, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 1.000. A refined panel of discriminant features consisted of six lipids from different subclasses (PE, PC, LPC, HCER, CER, and DCER). Logistic regression in the discovery cohort returned a training ROC AUC of 1.000 (sensitivity = 1.000, specificity = 1.000) and a test ROC AUC of 1.000. The validation cohort produced a training ROC AUC of 0.977 (sensitivity = 0.855, specificity = 0.948) and a test ROC AUC of 0.978 (sensitivity = 0.948, specificity = 0.922). The lipid panel was also able to differentiate SARS-CoV-2-positive individuals from SARS-CoV-2-negative individuals with COVID-19-like symptoms (specificity = 0.818). Lipid profiling and multivariate modelling revealed a signature offering mechanistic insights into SARS-CoV-2, with strong predictive power, and the potential to facilitate effective diagnosis and clinical management.

SARS-CoV-2 infection causes a significant reduction in lipoprotein-bound serum phospholipids give rise to supramolecular phospholipid composite (SPC) signals observed in diffusion and relaxation edited 1H NMR spectra. To characterize the chemical structural components and compartmental location of SPC and to understand further its possible diagnostic properties, we applied a Statistical HeterospectroscopY in n-dimensions (SHY-n) approach. This involved statistically linking a series of orthogonal measurements made on the same samples, using independent analytical techniques and instruments, to identify the major individual phospholipid components giving rise to the SPC signals. Thus, an integrated model for SARS-CoV-2 positive and control adults is presented that relates three identified diagnostic subregions of the SPC signal envelope (SPC1, SPC2, and SPC3) generated using diffusion and relaxation edited (DIRE) NMR spectroscopy to lipoprotein and lipid measurements obtained by in vitro diagnostic NMR spectroscopy and ultrahigh-performance liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry (UHPLC–MS/MS). The SPC signals were then correlated sequentially with (a) total phospholipids in lipoprotein subfractions; (b) apolipoproteins B100, A1, and A2 in different lipoproteins and subcompartments; and (c) MS-measured total serum phosphatidylcholines present in the NMR detection range (i.e., PCs: 16.0,18.2; 18.0,18.1; 18.2,18.2; 16.0,18.1; 16.0,20.4; 18.0,18.2; 18.1,18.2), lysophosphatidylcholines (LPCs: 16.0 and 18.2), and sphingomyelin (SM 22.1). The SPC3/SPC2 ratio correlated strongly (r = 0.86) with the apolipoprotein B100/A1 ratio, a well-established marker of cardiovascular disease risk that is markedly elevated during acute SARS-CoV-2 infection. These data indicate the considerable potential of using a serum SPC measurement as a metric of cardiovascular risk based on a single NMR experiment. This is of specific interest in relation to understanding the potential for increased cardiovascular risk in COVID-19 patients and risk persistence in post-acute COVID-19 syndrome (PACS).