We view the locations and times of a collection of crime events as a space-time point pattern. So, with either a nonhomogeneous Pois-son process or with a more general Cox process, we need to specify a space-time intensity. For the latter, we need a random intensity which we model as a realization of a spatio-temporal log Gaussian process. Importantly, we view time as circular not linear, necessitating valid separable and nonseparable covariance functions over a bounded spatial region crossed with circular time. In addition, crimes are classified by crime type. Furthermore, each crime event is recorded by day of the year which we convert to day of the week marks. The contribution here is to develop models to accommodate such data. Our specifications take the form of hierarchical models which we fit within a Bayesian framework. In this regard, we consider model comparison between the nonhomogeneous Poisson process and the log Gaussian Cox process. We also compare separable vs. nonseparable covariance specifications. Our motivating dataset is a collection of crime events for the city of San Francisco during the year 2012. We have location, hour, day of the year, and crime type for each event. We investigate models to enhance our understanding of the set of incidences.

This paper presents a comparison study in which several partners have applied methods to quantify uncertainty on production forecasts for reservoir models conditioned to both static and dynamic well data. A synthetic case study was set up, based on a real field case. All partners received well porosity/permeability data and ‘historic’ production data. Noise was added to both data types. A geological description was given to guide the parameterization of the reservoir model. Partners were asked to condition their reservoir models to these data and estimate the probability distribution of total field production at the end of the forecast period. The various approaches taken by the partners were categorized. Results showed that for a significant number of approaches the truth case was outside the predicted range. The choice of parameterization and initial reservoir models gave the largest influence on the prediction range, whereas the choice of reservoir simulator introduced a bias in the predicted range.

Estimates of recovery from oil fields are often found to be significantly in error, and the multidisciplinary SAIGUP modelling project has focused on the problem by assessing the influence of geological factors on production in a large suite of synthetic shallow-marine reservoir models. Over 400 progradational shallow-marine reservoirs, ranging from comparatively simple, parallel, wave-dominated shorelines through to laterally heterogeneous, lobate, river-dominated systems with abundant low-angle clinoforms, were generated as a function of sedimentological input conditioned to natural data. These sedimentological models were combined with structural models sharing a common overall form but consisting of three different fault systems with variable fault density and fault permeability characteristics and a common unfaulted end-member. Different sets of relative permeability functions applied on a facies-by-facies basis were calculated as a function of different lamina-scale properties and upscaling algorithms to establish the uncertainty in production introduced through the upscaling process. Different fault-related upscaling assumptions were also included in some models. A waterflood production mechanism was simulated using up to five different sets of well locations, resulting in simulated production behaviour for over 35 000 full-field reservoir models. The model reservoirs are typical of many North Sea examples, with total production ranging from c . 15×10 6  m 3 to 35×10 6  m 3 , and recovery factors of between 30% and 55%. A variety of analytical methods were applied. Formal statistical methods quantified the relative influences of individual input parameters and parameter combinations on production measures. Various measures of reservoir heterogeneity were tested for their ability to discriminate reservoir performance. This paper gives a summary of the modelling and analyses described in more detail in the remainder of this thematic set of papers.

In history matching and sensitivity analysis, flexibility in the structural modelling is of great importance. The ability to easily generate multiple realizations of the model will have impact both on the updating workflow in history matching and uncertainty studies based on Monte Carlo simulations. The main contribution to fault modelling by the work presented in this paper is a new algorithm for calculating a 3D displacement field applicable to a wide range of faults due to a flexible representation. This gives the possibility to apply this field to change the displacement and thereby moving horizons and fault lines. The fault is modelled by a parametric format where the fault has a reference plane defined by a centre point, dip and strike angles. The fault itself is represented as a surface defined by a function z = f (x, y), where x, y and z are coordinates local to the reference plane, with the z-axis being normal to the plane. The displacement associated with the fault outside the fault surface is described by a 3D vector field. The displacement on the fault surface can be found by identifying the intersection lines between horizons and the fault surface (fault lines), and using kriging techniques to fill in values at all points on the surface. Away from the fault surface the displacement field is defined by a monotonic decreasing function which ensures zero displacement at a specified distance from the fault. An algorithm is developed where the displacement can be increased or decreased according to user-defined parameters. This means that the whole displacement field is changed and points on horizons around the fault can be moved accordingly by applying the modified displacement field on them. The interaction between several faults influencing the same points is taken care of by truncation rules and the ordering of the faults. The method is demonstrated on a realistic synthetic case based on a real reservoir.

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