Although trade union density is the most influential and most commonly used indicator to map trade union strength, comparing between countries and time, the author argues that trade union density is lacking both specificity and comparability. Additionally, many studies on industrial relations neglect developing countries.Therefore, the paper offers a new concept based on a combination of different theoretical approaches that identify determinants of trade union strength involving developing countries. On that basis, the author creates a novel, composite index that is better at capturing trade union strength than previous indices. First evaluations of this collective labour force index, which covers the years 2000 to 2016 in 72 countries, show that it is quite capable of doing so.
Populist parties enjoy stable support in various European countries. The literature on the rise of populism argues that this support especially increases in times of crises. Surprisingly, the German right-wing populist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) did not increase its support in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, the party even lost 2.3 percentage points in the 2021 federal election. We address this puzzle and ask why the AfD has not been able to use the crisis to its advantage. Our main argument in answering this question is that, although the AfD pursued the classic populist strategy of fundamental opposition, the support base of the AfD is strongly divided on the preference towards measures containing the spread of COVID-19. This division is reinforced by individual affectedness by the pandemic. Introducing a novel weekly dataset on voter preferences, we show that the AfD support base is strongly divided on the issue with approval of the government measures being a significant and substantial contributor to vote switching away from the AfD. Using regional-level data and a difference-in-differences approach, we further show that western German regions hit especially hard by the pandemic display a lower AfD vote share than other regions. Our findings have important implications for the impact of exogenous shocks on electoral competition and also on the future of populist parties.
In recent years several contributions have made the argument that right-wing populist voting is interrelated with individuals being negatively affected by globalisation. While there is certainly merit to this argument, it cannot explain why voters unconcerned by globalisation vote for right-wing populist parties. In this article we answer this question and argue that ontological insecurity or, the way we frame it, existential anxieties are a previously overlooked determinant of right-wing populist voting, as these anxieties make people vulnerable to right-wing populist crises narratives even when they are not affected by the crises. Using European Social Survey data for 12 Western European countries between 2004 and 2018, we construct a novel index that measures existential anxieties on the individual level. Our index shows (1) that existential anxieties increase the likelihood of right-wing populist voting and (2) that the fear fuelling narratives of these parties especially mobilise individuals with moderate globalisation attitudes.
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