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Populations of migratory geese overwintering in Europe have risen rapidly during recent decades, leading to increased pressure on available forage resources and more grazing on agricultural lands. Farmers throughout Europe have complained of yield losses due to goose grazing. In spring, the Svalbard-breeding population of pink-footed goose (Anser brachyrhynchus) migrates through specific staging sites in Norway, where the geese graze on dairy grasslands and other types of agricultural lands in the early growing season. Despite this, little is known of the impacts of goose grazing on hay biomass and quality in Norway. An experiment using exclosures to prevent goose grazing, and plots that were open for grazing, was established in Central Norway to test the effects of variable grazing intensity on dairy grassland yields. A single spring-grazing event had severe negative impact at the site with the highest grazing intensity, leading to a 25% reduction in forage yield (milk feed units per hectare) as compared to ungrazed areas. The impacts on the sites with lower grazing intensity were more subtle. The overall reduction (across all sites) of biomass yield was 26%. Forage quality, in terms of milk feed units per kg, was not much affected. Grazing increased the proportion and diversity of weeds, as evidenced by a 49% increase of the Shannon biodiversity index, and there was a 1Á3% decrease in the proportion of herbage biomass of sown species. Hence, we have confirmed farmer reports on yield losses, gaining an increased understanding of the overall farmer costs associated with goose grazing in this northern latitude region.

Many goose species feed on agricultural land, and with growing goose numbers, conflicts with agriculture are increasing. One possible solution is to designate refuge areas where farmers are paid to leave geese undisturbed. Here, we present a generic modelling tool that can be used to designate the best locations for refuges and to gauge the area needed to accommodate the geese. With a species distribution model, locations are ranked according to goose suitability. The size of the area to be designated as refuge can be chosen by including more or less suitable locations. A resource depletion model is then used to estimate whether enough resources are available within the designated refuge to accommodate all geese, taking into account the dynamics of food resources, including depletion by geese. We illustrate this with the management scheme for pink-footed goose Anser brachyrhynchus implemented in Norway. Here, all geese can be accommodated, but damage levels appear to depend on weather, land use and refuge size.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-017-0899-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The model FROSTOL simulates course of frost tolerance in winter wheat on a daily basis from sowing on as affected by soil temperature (2 cm), snow cover, phenological development, and a genotypic maximum level of frost tolerance (LT 50 ). A series of cultivar trials in Finland was used to evaluate the model's ability to estimate plant survival in natural field environments during winters with differing weather conditions. Recorded survival was compared with number of intersections between the curves of simulated LT50 and the soil temperature curve for each field. A cumulative stress level (CSL) was calculated based both on number of intersections and FROSTOL simulated stress levels. The correlation between CSL and field recordings was quite low. While the field trials characterize a general ability to stand various types of winter stress, FROSTOL estimates damage caused by the soil temperature regime only. However, FROSTOL simulations seemed to correspond reasonably well to field observations when low temperature was the eventual cause of damage.