Kelp forests (Order Laminariales) form key biogenic habitats in coastal regions of temperate and Arctic seas worldwide, providing ecosystem services valued in the range of billions of dollars annually. Although local evidence suggests that kelp forests are increasingly threatened by a variety of stressors, no comprehensive global analysis of change in kelp abundances currently exists.Here, we build and analyze a global database of kelp time series spanning the past half-century to assess regional and global trends in kelp abundances. We detected a high degree of geographic variation in trends, with regional variability in the direction and magnitude of change far exceeding a small global average decline (instantaneous rate of change = −0.018 y −1 ). Our analysis identified declines in 38% of ecoregions for which there are data (−0.015 to −0.18 y −1 ), increases in 27% of ecoregions (0.015 to 0.11 y −1 ), and no detectable change in 35% of ecoregions. These spatially variable trajectories reflected regional differences in the drivers of change, uncertainty in some regions owing to poor spatial and temporal data coverage, and the dynamic nature of kelp populations. We conclude that although global drivers could be affecting kelp forests at multiple scales, local stressors and regional variation in the effects of these drivers dominate kelp dynamics, in contrast to many other marine and terrestrial foundation species. A ssessing ecosystem change on a global scale has been instrumental in highlighting the magnitude of human impacts on natural ecosystems. For example, awareness of global declines in fish populations (1), coral reefs (2), and tropical rainforests (3) has substantially increased public interest and subsequent political motivation for environmental conservation. In some cases, global assessments have highlighted complex patterns of change (4, 5), which often reflect variable trajectories among regions (4). SignificanceKelp forests support diverse and productive ecological communities throughout temperate and arctic regions worldwide, providing numerous ecosystem services to humans. Literature suggests that kelp forests are increasingly threatened by a variety of human impacts, including climate change, overfishing, and direct harvest. We provide the first globally comprehensive analysis of kelp forest change over the past 50 y, identifying a high degree of variation in the magnitude and direction of change across the geographic range of kelps. These results suggest region-specific responses to global change, with local drivers playing an important role in driving patterns of kelp abundance. Increased monitoring aimed at understanding regional kelp forest dynamics is likely to prove most effective for the adaptive management of these important ecosystems.

A pronounced, widespread and persistent regime shift among marine ecosystems is observable on temperate rocky reefs as a result of sea urchin overgrazing. Here, we empirically define regime-shift dynamics for this grazing system which transitions between productive macroalgal beds and impoverished urchin barrens. Catastrophic in nature, urchin overgrazing in a well-studied Australian system demonstrates a discontinuous regime shift, which is of particular management concern as recovery of desirable macroalgal beds requires reducing grazers to well below the initial threshold of overgrazing. Generality of this regime-shift dynamic is explored across 13 rocky reef systems (spanning 11 different regions from both hemispheres) by compiling available survey data (totalling 10 901 quadrats surveyed in situ ) plus experimental regime-shift responses (observed during a total of 57 in situ manipulations). The emergent and globally coherent pattern shows urchin grazing to cause a discontinuous ‘catastrophic’ regime shift, with hysteresis effect of approximately one order of magnitude in urchin biomass between critical thresholds of overgrazing and recovery. Different life-history traits appear to create asymmetry in the pace of overgrazing versus recovery. Once shifted, strong feedback mechanisms provide resilience for each alternative state thus defining the catastrophic nature of this regime shift. Importantly, human-derived stressors can act to erode resilience of desirable macroalgal beds while strengthening resilience of urchin barrens, thus exacerbating the risk, spatial extent and irreversibility of an unwanted regime shift for marine ecosystems.

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Invasions of non-native species in marine ecosystems can be ecologically damaging and economically costly. Identifying 'hot-spots' of non-native species and their sources of introduction is necessary to maximize the effectiveness of invasion quarantine programs. We use a large spatially explicit marine fish database to show that there are a surprising number of non-native fishes on the reefs of southeast Florida, USA. Two likely sources explain the occurrence of non-native marine fishes in this region: introductions through ballast-water exchange, and introductions from aquaria. Data on international shipping patterns and marine fish imports were used to evaluate the culpability of these 2 vectors. Our results suggest that the introductions are the result of aquarium releases. Prevention of further releases and invasions will require education, outreach, and enforcement efforts directed at marine aquarists and the aquarium industry.

As climatic changes and human uses intensify, resource managers and other decision makers are taking actions to either avoid or respond to ecosystem tipping points, or dramatic shifts in structure and function that are often costly and hard to reverse. Evidence indicates that explicitly addressing tipping points leads to improved management outcomes. Drawing on theory and examples from marine systems, we distill a set of seven principles to guide effective management in ecosystems with tipping points, derived from the best available science. These principles are based on observations that tipping points (1) are possible everywhere, (2) are associated with intense and/or multifaceted human use, (3) may be preceded by changes in earlywarning indicators, (4) may redistribute benefits among stakeholders, (5) affect the relative costs of action and inaction, (6) suggest biologically informed management targets, and (7) often require an adaptive response to monitoring. We suggest that early action to preserve system resilience is likely more practical, affordable, and effective than late action to halt or reverse a tipping point. We articulate a conceptual approach to management focused on linking management targets to thresholds, tracking early-warning signals of ecosystem instability, and stepping up investment in monitoring and mitigation as the likelihood of dramatic ecosystem change increases. This approach can simplify and economize management by allowing decision makers to capitalize on the increasing value of precise information about threshold relationships when a system is closer to tipping or by ensuring that restoration effort is sufficient to tip a system into the desired regime.

The sunflower sea star, P. helianthoides, has collapsed across most of its range, in both shallow and deep waters.

Abstract. Marine reserves provide a large-scale experimental framework to investigate the effects of fishing on food web dynamics and how they vary with environmental context. Because marine reserves promote the recovery of previously fished predators, spatial comparisons between reserve and fished sites are often made to infer such effects; however, alternative explanations for differences between reserve and fished sites are seldom tested (e.g., environmental variation among sites). We investigated the context dependency of the predator-urchin-kelp trophic cascade reported in northeastern New Zealand by comparing the abundance of herbivorous sea urchins (Evechinus chloroticus), the extent of urchin barrens habitat, and macroalgal biomass between reserve and fished sites within six locations that span an environmental gradient in wave exposure, sedimentation, and water clarity. At depths where differences in urchin abundance or macroalgal biomass were found between reserve and fished sites we used a model selection approach to identify which variables (fishing or environmental factors) best explained the variation among sites. Differences between reserve and fished sites were not ubiquitous across the locations examined and were highly depth specific. At sheltered locations, urchins were rare and barrens absent at both reserve and fished sites. At moderately exposed coastal locations, actively grazing urchins were most abundant at 4-6 m depth, and significant differences in macroalgal biomass between reserve and fished sites were observed. In contrast, at offshore island locations, urchins extended into deeper water, and differences between reserve and fished sites were found at 4-9 m depth. These differences could only be attributed to trophic cascades associated with protection from fishing in two of the six locations examined. In other cases, variation between reserve and fished sites was equally well explained by differences in sediment or wave exposure among sites. These results suggest that trophic cascades are not ubiquitous to northeastern New Zealand's subtidal reefs and the importance of sea urchins, and indirectly predators, in controlling macroalgal biomass will vary at local and regional scales in relation to abiotic factors. A better mechanistic understanding of how environmental variation affects the strength of species interactions across multiple spatial scales is needed to predict the ecosystem-level effects of fishing.