Background-Heart failure has an annual mortality rate ranging from 5% to 75%. The purpose of the study was to develop and validate a multivariate risk model to predict 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival in heart failure patients with the use of easily obtainable characteristics relating to clinical status, therapy (pharmacological as well as devices), and laboratory parameters. Methods and Results-The Seattle Heart Failure Model was derived in a cohort of 1125 heart failure patients with the use of a multivariate Cox model. For medications and devices not available in the derivation database, hazard ratios were estimated from published literature. The model was prospectively validated in 5 additional cohorts totaling 9942 heart failure patients and 17 307 person-years of follow-up.
Amlodipine did not increase cardiovascular morbidity or mortality in patients with severe heart failure. The possibility that amlodipine prolongs survival in patients with nonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy requires further study.
Bococizumab is a humanized monoclonal antibody binding proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9, which may be a potential therapeutic option for reducing low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels in patients with hypercholesterolemia. In this 24-week, multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled, dose-ranging study (NCT01592240), subjects with LDL-C levels≥80 mg/dl on stable statin therapy were randomized to Q14 days subcutaneous placebo or bococizumab 50, 100, or 150 mg or Q28 days subcutaneous placebo or bococizumab 200 or 300 mg. Doses of bococizumab were reduced if LDL-C levels persistently decreased to ≤25 mg/dl. The primary end point was the absolute change in LDL-C levels from baseline to week 12 after placebo or bococizumab administration. Continuation of bococizumab administration through to week 24 enabled the collection of safety data over an extended period. Of the 354 subjects randomized, 351 received treatment (placebo [n=100] or bococizumab [n=251]). The most efficacious bococizumab doses were 150 mg Q14 days and 300 mg Q28 days. Compared with placebo, bococizumab 150 mg Q14 days reduced LDL-C at week 12 by 53.4 mg/dl and bococizumab 300 mg Q28 days reduced LDL-C by 44.9 mg/dl; this was despite dose reductions in 32.5% and 34.2% of subjects at week 10 or 8, respectively. Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model-based simulation assuming no dose reductions predicted that bococizumab would lower LDL-C levels by 72.2 and 55.4 mg/dl, respectively. Adverse events were similar across placebo and bococizumab groups. Few subjects (n=7; 2%) discontinued treatment because of treatment-related adverse events. In conclusion, bococizumab significantly reduced LDL-C across all doses despite dose reductions in many subjects. Model-based simulations predicted greater LDL-C reduction in the absence of bococizumab dose reduction. The Q14 days regimen is being evaluated in phase 3 clinical trials.
Measuring the Incidence, Causes, and Repercussions of Protocol Amendments Drug development companies frequently amend finalized clinical trial protocols. Yet the incidence, causes, and impact of protocol amendments have never been quantified. Tufts Center for the Study of Drug Development (Tufts CSDD) conducted a study, in collaboration with 17 large and midsized pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, examining more than 3,400 clinical trial protocols across development phases and therapeutic areas. Data on protocol characteristics, the number of amendments, the nature and incidence of changes per amendment, the causes of amendments, and the time and cost to implement amendments were among those analyzed. Tufts CSDD found that more than 40% of protocols were amended prior to the first subjedfirst visit, and one third of amendments were avoidable. Each amended protocol had an average of 2.3 amendments resulting in 4 months of incremental time to implement. Protocol amendments translate into significant unplanned expense and delays for research sponsors and unexpected burden for investigative sites. These findings underscore the substantial impact of protocol amendments on drug development efficiency and present an opportunity to realize substantial cycle time and cost savings.
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