The efficiency of spatial repellents and long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) is a key research topic in malaria control. Insecticidal nets reduce the mosquito-human contact rate and simultaneously decrease mosquito populations. However, LLINs demonstrate dissimilar efficiency against different species of malaria mosquitoes. Various factors have been proposed as an explanation, including differences in insecticide-induced mortality, flight characteristics, or persistence of attack. Here we present a discrete agent-based approach that enables the efficiency of LLINs, baited traps and Insecticide Residual Sprays (IRS) to be examined. The model is calibrated with hut-level experimental data to compare the efficiency of protection against two mosquito species: Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles arabiensis. We show that while such data does not allow an unambiguous identification of the details of how LLINs alter the vector behavior, the model calibrations quantify the overall impact of LLINs for the two different mosquito species. The simulations are generalized to community-scale scenarios that systematically demonstrate the lower efficiency of the LLINs in control of An. arabiensis compared to An. gambiae.

Abstract. We address the problem of identifying the evaporation rates for neutral molecular clusters from synthetic (computer-simulated) cluster concentrations. We applied Bayesian parameter estimation using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to determine cluster evaporation/fragmentation rates from synthetic cluster distributions generated by the Atmospheric Cluster Dynamics Code (ACDC) and based on gas kinetic collision rate coefficients and evaporation rates obtained using quantum chemical calculations and detailed balances. The studied system consisted of electrically neutral sulfuric acid and ammonia clusters with up to five of each type of molecules. We then treated the concentrations generated by ACDC as synthetic experimental data. With the assumption that the collision rates are known, we tested two approaches for estimating the evaporation rates from these data. First, we studied a scenario where time-dependent cluster distributions are measured at a single temperature before the system reaches a steady state. In the second scenario, only steady-state cluster distributions are measured but at several temperatures. Additionally, in the latter case, the evaporation rates were represented in terms of cluster formation enthalpies and entropies. This reparameterization reduced the number of unknown parameters, since several evaporation rates depend on the same cluster formation enthalpy and entropy values. We also estimated the evaporation rates using previously published synthetic steady-state cluster concentration data at one temperature and compared our two cases to this setting. Both the time-dependent and the two-temperature steady-state concentration data allowed us to estimate the evaporation rates with less variance than in the steady-state single-temperature case. We show that temperature-dependent steady-state data outperform single-temperature time-dependent data for parameter estimation, even if only two temperatures are used. We can thus conclude that for experimentally determining evaporation rates, cluster distribution measurements at several temperatures are recommended over time-dependent measurements at one temperature.

The effect of dust aerosols on accretion reactions of water, formaldehyde and formic acid was studied in the conditions of Earth's troposphere using at the DLPNO-CCSD(T)/aug-cc-pVTZ//ωB97X-D/6-31++G** level of theory. Detailed analysis of the reaction mechanisms in the gas phase and on the surface of mineral dust, represented by mono-and tri-silicic acid, revealed that mineral dust has the potential for decreasing reaction barrier heights. Specifically, at 0 K, mineral dust can lower the apparent energy barrier of the reaction of formaldehyde with formic acid to zero. However, when the entropic contributions to the reaction free energies were accounted for, mineral dust was found to selectively enhance the reaction of water with formaldehyde, while inhibiting the reaction of formaldehyde and formic acid, in the lower parts of the troposphere (with temperatures around 298 K). In the upper troposphere (with temperatures closer to 198 K), mineral dust catalyzes both reactions, and also the reaction of methanol with formic acid. Despite the intrinsic potential of mineral dust, calculation of the catalytic enhancement parameter for a likely range of dust aerosol concentrations suggested that dust aerosols will not contribute to secondary organic aerosol formation via dimerization of closed-shell organic compounds. The main reason for this is the relatively low absolute concentration of tropospheric dust aerosol, and its inefficiency in increasing the effective reaction rate coefficients.

Background Increasingly complex models have been developed to characterize the transmission dynamics of malaria. The multiplicity of malaria transmission factors calls for a realistic modelling approach that incorporates various complex factors such as the effect of control measures, behavioural impacts of the parasites to the vector, or socio-economic variables. Indeed, the crucial impact of household size in eliminating malaria has been emphasized in previous studies. However, increasing complexity also increases the difficulty of calibrating model parameters. Moreover, despite the availability of much field data, a common pitfall in malaria transmission modelling is to obtain data that could be directly used for model calibration. Methods In this work, an approach that provides a way to combine in situ field data with the parameters of malaria transmission models is presented. This is achieved by agent-based stochastic simulations, initially calibrated with hut-level experimental data. The simulation results provide synthetic data for regression analysis that enable the calibration of key parameters of classical models, such as biting rates and vector mortality. In lieu of developing complex dynamical models, the approach is demonstrated using most classical malaria models, but with the model parameters calibrated to account for such complex factors. The performance of the approach is tested against a wide range of field data for Entomological Inoculation Rate (EIR) values. Results The overall transmission characteristics can be estimated by including various features that impact EIR and malaria incidence, for instance by reducing the mosquito–human contact rates and increasing the mortality through control measures or socio-economic factors. Conclusion Complex phenomena such as the impact of the coverage of the population with long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), changes in behaviour of the infected vector and the impact of socio-economic factors can be included in continuous level modelling. Though the present work should be interpreted as a proof of concept, based on one set of field data only, certain interesting conclusions can already be drawn. While the present work focuses on malaria, the computational approach is generic, and can be applied to other cases where suitable in situ data is available.

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<p>Atmospheric new particle formation and successive cluster growth to aerosol particles is an important field of research, in particular due to climate change phenomena and air quality monitoring. Recent developments in the instrumentation have enabled quantification of ionic clusters formed in the gas phase at the first steps of particle formation under atmospherically relevant mixing ratios. However, electrically neutral clusters are prevalent in atmospheric conditions, and thus must be charged prior to detection by mass spectrometer. The charging process can lead to cluster fragmentation and thus alter the measured cluster composition.</p><p>Even when the cluster composition can be measured directly, this does not quantify individual cluster-level properties, such as cluster collision and evaporation rates. Collision rates contain relatively small uncertainties in comparison to evaporation rates, which are computed using detailed balance assumption together with the free energies of cluster formation, which can in turn be obtained from Quantum chemistry (QC) methods. As evaporation rates depend exponentially on the free energies, even difference by several kcal/mol between different QC methods results in orders of magnitude differences in evaporation rates.</p><p>On the other hand, in spite of the error margins associated with the evaporation rates, simulations of cluster populations, which incorporate collision and evaporation rates as free parameters (such as Becker-Döring models), have demonstrated good qualitative agreement with experimental data. The Becker-Döring equations are a system of Ordinary Differential equations (ODE) which account for cluster birth and death processes, as well as external sinks and sources. In mathematical terms, prediction of cluster concentrations using kinetic simulations with given cluster collision and evaporation rates is called a forward problem.</p><p>In the present study, we focus on the so-called inverse problem of how to derive the evaporation rates and thermodynamic data (enthalpy change and entropy change due to addition or removal of molecule) from available measurements, rather than on the forward problem. We do this by Delayed Rejection Adaptive Monte Carlo (DRAM) method for the system containing sulfuric acid and ammonia with the maximal size of the pentamer. Initially, we tested the method on the synthetic data created from Atmospheric Cluster Dynamic Code (ACDC) simulations. By so doing, we identify the combination of fitted parameters and concentration measurements, which leads to the best identification of the evaporation rates. Additionally, we demonstrated that the temperature-dependent data yield better estimates of the evaporation rates as compared to the time-dependent data measured before the system has reached the steady state.</p><p>Next, we apply the technique to improve the identification of the evaporation rates from CLOUD chamber data, which contain cluster concentrations and new particle formation rates measured at different temperatures and a wide range of atmospherically relevant sulfuric acid and ammonia concentrations. As a result, we were able to obtain the probability density functions (PDFs) that show small standard variations for thermodynamic data. By using the values from the PDFs as parameters in the ACDC model, we achieve a fair agreement with the measured NPFs and cluster concentrations for a wide range of temperatures.</p>

In this document we respond to the referee comments for the paper "Identification of molecular cluster evaporation rates, enthalpies and entropies by Monte Carlo method". These comments were provided at the public discussion stage of the review process for publication in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.In Section 2 we list each of Referee's comments. We also include our comment-bycomment responses. Each of the referee's comments are denoted with "C" and our responses to the referee's comments are denoted with "R".

In this document we respond to the referee comments for the paper "Identification of molecular cluster evaporation rates, enthalpies and entropies by Monte Carlo method". These comments were provided at the public discussion stage of the review process for publication in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.In Section 2 we list each of Referee's comments. We also include our comment-bycomment responses. Each of the referee's comments are denoted with "C" and our responses to the referee's comments are denoted with "R".