The article presents selected Polish early warning models (logit and discriminant models) that allow the assessment of the risk of bankruptcy of a company, and the purpose of the considerations is to indicate their prognostic effectiveness in predicting susceptible Polish companies one year before their declarations of bankruptcy. The limitations of these methods were also indicated in unpredictable situations, such as the outbreak of an economic crisis, e.g., caused by a humanitarian crisis—the COVID-19 pandemic. Another aim chosen in the article is a methodological critical assessment of the phenomenon of widespread use of foreign models (including the common Altman method) in the study of the risk of bankruptcy of Polish enterprises. Models developed on a sample of foreign enterprises without prior adaptation to domestic conditions are used all over the world, so the conclusions of the article are applicable internationally. The research was based on a query of Polish and foreign literature in the field of economic and legal aspects of bankruptcy and financial analysis, including, in particular, bankruptcy forecasting. The empirical research analyzes the financial data of 50 Polish enterprises from 2017 to 2018. The effectiveness of the selected bankruptcy forecasting models in identifying enterprises from section C of the Polish economy (industrial processing) that filed for bankruptcy in 2018 and 2019 was tested. The time frame fully allows for the identification and the assessment of the effectiveness of early warning models a year before bankruptcy.
The ongoing digital transformation is visible in the tax world. In Poland, the process that began in 2016 is defined by the authors as the VAT digitization process. The solutions introduced by the legislator have primarily been aimed at curbing tax evasion and at authorizing efficient audit and as a result, tightening of VAT tax system. The purpose of the paper is, thus, to highlight the importance of VAT digitization in disclosing income in section-F of the economyconstruction and in section-G -wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles, including motorcycles. There are several reasons these sectors were chosen. In 2016, the Ministry of Finance indicated that the construction industry was characterized by a high risk of tax fraud (making it a so-called sensitive industry). The same year, construction, along with trade, became the sectors affected most by the shadow economy. The conclusion was based on the observation of the construction sector value added in the period of 2017-2019 set against the previous period of 1995-2016 and compared with the trade value added in 1995-2016 and 2017-2019 respectively. The study has found a visible value-added increase, which was reasonably greater than what would have resulted from the economic boom, proving that the income which has so far been subject to tax fraud has been duly demonstrated. Research hypothesis, VAT digitization has a greater impact on disclosing income in section F than in section G, has been positively verified.
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