Over the past 200 years, the population of the United States grew more than 40-fold. The resulting development of the built environment has had a profound impact on the regional economic, demographic, and environmental structure of North America. Unfortunately, constraints on data availability limit opportunities to study long-term development patterns and how population growth relates to land-use change. Using hundreds of millions of property records, we undertake the finest-resolution analysis to date, in space and time, of urbanization patterns from 1810 to 2015. Temporally consistent metrics reveal distinct long-term urban development patterns characterizing processes such as settlement expansion and densification at fine granularity. Furthermore, we demonstrate that these settlement measures are robust proxies for population throughout the record and thus potential surrogates for estimating population changes at fine scales. These new insights and data vastly expand opportunities to study land use, population change, and urbanization over the past two centuries.
The elevation and extent of coastal marshes are dictated by the interplay between the rate of relative sea-level rise (RRSLR), surface accretion by inorganic sediment deposition, and organic soil production by plants. These accretion processes respond to changes in local and global forcings, such as sediment delivery to the coast, nutrient concentrations, and atmospheric CO 2 , but their relative importance for marsh resilience to increasing RRSLR remains unclear. In particular, marshes up-take atmospheric CO 2 at high rates, thereby playing a major role in the global carbon cycle, but the morphologic expression of increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration, an imminent aspect of climate change, has not yet been isolated and quantified. Using the available observational literature and a spatially explicit ecomorphodynamic model, we explore marsh responses to increased atmospheric CO 2 , relative to changes in inorganic sediment availability and elevated nitrogen levels. We find that marsh vegetation response to foreseen elevated atmospheric CO 2 is similar in magnitude to the response induced by a varying inorganic sediment concentration, and that it increases the threshold RRSLR initiating marsh submergence by up to 60% in the range of forcings explored. Furthermore, we find that marsh responses are inherently spatially dependent, and cannot be adequately captured through 0-dimensional representations of marsh dynamics. Our results imply that coastal marshes, and the major carbon sink they represent, are significantly more resilient to foreseen climatic changes than previously thought.sea-level rise | coastal marshes | coastal dynamics | atmospheric CO 2 | CO 2 fertilization C oastal marsh extent and morphology are directly controlled by rate of relative sea-level rise (RRSLR) and the soil accretion rate, the latter associated with inorganic sediment deposition and organic soil production by plants. Previous studies observed that CO 2 fertilization increases marsh plant biomass productivity through increased water use efficiency and photosynthesis (1), and hypothesized that, as a consequence, marsh resilience should increase via increased organic accretion (2, 3). However, this hypothesis has not yet been tested, and the observed increased plant productivity in response to the CO 2 fertilization effect has not been translated into its actual geomorphic effects. In fact, direct CO 2 effects on vegetation and marsh accretion (as opposed to its indirect effects, e.g., via the increase in temperature) have not yet been incorporated into marsh models, and their importance relative to other leading forcings of marsh dynamics (e.g., inorganic deposition, RRSLR, nutrient levels) remains unknown. Here we use existing data and a 1D ecomorphodynamic model to assess the direct impacts of elevated CO 2 on marsh morphology, relative to ongoing [e.g., RRSLR, and suspended sediment concentration (SSC)] and emerging [nutrient levels (4-6)] environmental change. Vegetation Responses to Changing Environmental ConditionsWe use publ...
Abstract. The collection, processing, and analysis of remote sensing data since the early 1970s has rapidly improved our understanding of change on the Earth's surface. While satellite-based Earth observation has proven to be of vast scientific value, these data are typically confined to recent decades of observation and often lack important thematic detail. Here, we advance in this arena by constructing new spatially explicit settlement data for the United States that extend back to the early 19th century and are consistently enumerated at fine spatial and temporal granularity (i.e. 250 m spatial and 5-year temporal resolution). We create these time series using a large, novel building-stock database to extract and map retrospective, fine-grained spatial distributions of built-up properties in the conterminous United States from 1810 to 2015. From our data extraction, we analyse and publish a series of gridded geospatial datasets that enable novel retrospective historical analysis of the built environment at an unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. The datasets are part of the Historical Settlement Data Compilation for the United States (https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/hisdacus, last access: 25 January 2021) and are available at https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/YSWMDR (Uhl and Leyk, 2020a), https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/SJ213V (Uhl and Leyk, 2020b), and https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/J6CYUJ (Uhl and Leyk, 2020c).
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