Background Late-stage cancer immunotherapy trials strive to demonstrate the clinical efficacy of novel immunotherapies, which is leading to exceptional responses and long-term survival in subsets of patients. To establish the clinical efficacy of an immunotherapy, it is critical to adjust the trial's design to the expected immunotherapy-specific response patterns. Methods In silico cancer immunotherapy trials are virtual clinical trials that simulate the kinetics and outcome of immunotherapy depending on the type and treatment schedule. We used an ordinary differential equation model to simulate (1) cellular interactions within the tumor microenvironment, (2) translates these into disease courses in patients, and (3) assemble populations of virtual patients to simulate in silico late-stage immunotherapy, chemotherapy, or combination trials. We predict trial outcomes and investigate how therapy-specific response patterns affect the probability of their success. Results In silico cancer immunotherapy trials reveal that immunotherapy-derived survival kinetics — such as delayed curve separation and plateauing curve of the treatment arm — arise naturally due to biological interactions in the tumor microenvironment. In silico clinical trials are capable of translating these biological interactions into survival kinetics. Considering four aspects of clinical trial design — sample size calculations, endpoint and randomization rate selection, and interim analysis planning — we illustrate that failing to consider such distinctive response patterns can significantly reduce the power of novel immunotherapy trials. Conclusion In silico trials have three significant implications for immuno-oncology. First, they provide an economical approach to verify the robustness of biological assumptions underlying an immunotherapy trial and help to scrutinize its design. Second, the biological basis of these trials facilitates and encourages communication between biomedical researchers, doctors, and trialists. Third, its application as an educational tool can illustrate design principles to scientists in training, contributing to improved designs and higher success rates of future immunotherapy trials.
Late-stage cancer immunotherapy trials often lead to unusual survival curve shapes, like delayed curve separation or a plateauing curve in the treatment arm. It is critical for trial success to anticipate such effects in advance and adjust the design accordingly. Here, we use in silico cancer immunotherapy trials – simulated trials based on three different mathematical models – to assemble virtual patient cohorts undergoing late-stage immunotherapy, chemotherapy, or combination therapies. We find that all three simulation models predict the distinctive survival curve shapes commonly associated with immunotherapies. Considering four aspects of clinical trial design – sample size, endpoint, randomization rate, and interim analyses – we demonstrate how, by simulating various possible scenarios, the robustness of trial design choices can be scrutinized, and possible pitfalls can be identified in advance. We provide readily usable, web-based implementations of our three trial simulation models to facilitate their use by biomedical researchers, doctors, and trialists.
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