In today's era of big data, deep learning and artificial intelligence have formed the backbone for cryptocurrency portfolio optimization. Researchers have investigated various state of the art machine learning models to predict Bitcoin price and volatility. Machine learning models like recurrent neural network (RNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) have been shown to perform better than traditional time series models in cryptocurrency price prediction. However, very few studies have applied sequence models with robust feature engineering to predict future pricing. In this study, we investigate a framework with a set of advanced machine learning forecasting methods with a fixed set of exogenous and endogenous factors to predict daily Bitcoin prices. We study and compare different approaches using the root mean squared error (RMSE). Experimental results show that gated recurring unit (GRU) model with recurrent dropout performs better than popular existing models. We also show that simple trading strategies, when implemented with our proposed GRU model and with proper learning, can lead to financial gain.
This study proposes an efficient neural network with convolutional layers to classify significantly class-imbalanced clinical data. The data are curated from the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (NHANES) with the goal of predicting the occurrence of Coronary Heart Disease (CHD). While the majority of the existing machine learning models that have been used on this class of data are vulnerable to class imbalance even after the adjustment of class-specific weights, our simple two-layer CNN exhibits resilience to the imbalance with fair harmony in class-specific performance. In order to obtain significant improvement in classification accuracy under supervised learning settings, it is a common practice to train a neural network architecture with a massive data and thereafter, test the resulting network on a comparatively smaller amount of data. However, given a highly imbalanced dataset, it is often challenging to achieve a high class 1 (true CHD prediction rate) accuracy as the testing data size increases. We adopt a two-step approach: first, we employ least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) based feature weight assessment followed by majority-voting based identification of important features. Next, the important features are homogenized by using a fully connected layer, a crucial step before passing the output of the layer to successive convolutional stages. We also propose a training routine per epoch, akin to a simulated annealing process, to boost the classification accuracy.Despite a 35:1 (Non-CHD:CHD) ratio in the NHANES dataset, the investigation confirms that our proposed CNN architecture has the classification power of 77% to correctly classify the presence of CHD and 81.8% the absence of CHD cases on a testing data, which is 85.70% of the total dataset. This result signifies that the proposed architecture can be generalized to other studies in healthcare with a similar order of features and imbalances. While the recall values obtained from other machine learning methods such as SVM and random forest are comparable to that of our proposed CNN model, our model predicts the negative (Non-CHD) cases with higher accuracy.The balanced accuracy of our model (79.5%) is also better than individual accuracies of SVM or random forest classifiers. The CNN classifier results in high specificity and test accuracy along with high values of recall and area under the curve (AUC).
In today's era of big data, deep learning and artificial intelligence have formed the backbone for cryptocurrency portfolio optimization. Researchers have investigated various state of the art machine learning models to predict Bitcoin price and volatility. Machine learning models like recurrent neural network (RNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) have been shown to perform better than traditional time series models in cryptocurrency price prediction. However, very few studies have applied sequence models with robust feature engineering to predict future pricing. In this study, we investigate a framework with a set of advanced machine learning forecasting methods with a fixed set of exogenous and endogenous factors to predict daily Bitcoin prices. We study and compare different approaches using the root mean squared error (RMSE). Experimental results show that the gated recurring unit (GRU) model with recurrent dropout performs better than popular existing models. We also show that simple trading strategies, when implemented with our proposed GRU model and with proper learning, can lead to financial gain.
This study examines a pricing approach that is applicable in the field of online ticket sales for game tickets. The mathematical principle of dynamic programing is combined with empirical data analysis to determine demand functions for university football game tickets. Based on the calculated demand functions, the application of DP strategies is found to generate more revenues than a fixed price strategy. The other important result is the capacity distribution of tickets according to the football game intensity. Prior studies have shown that it is sometimes more profitable or football clubs to allocate a share of tickets to a retailer and earn a commission based on the sales, rather than selling the entire capacity of tickets by itself. This paper finds that in a high intensity game, where the demand is generally high, it is optimal for the club to sell all tickets by itself. Whereas, for less popular games, where there is considerable fluctuation in demand, the capacity allocation problem for maximized revenues from ticket sales, becomes a harder optimization challenge for the club. According to DP optimization, when the demand for tickets is relatively low, it is optimal for the club to retain 20–40% of the tickets and the rest of the capacity should be sold to online retailers. In the real world, this pricing technique has been used by football clubs and thus the secondary market online retailers like Ticketmaster and Vivid Seats have become popular in the last decade.
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