The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.
The ongoing coronavirus pandemic is expected to drastically slow 2020 GDP per capita growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) by about 5 percentage points compared to pre-pandemic forecasts. This note presents results from an analysis of a comprehensive database of surveys from 45 of 48 SSA countries to examine the effects of the project fall in growth on poverty in the region. An additional 26 million people in SSA, and as much as 58 million, may fall into extreme poverty defined by the international poverty line of US$1.90 per day in 2011 PPP. The poverty rate for SSA will likely increase more than two percentage points, setting back poverty reduction in the region by about 5 years.
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