A multinomial logit model is estimated to investigate the destination of students one-year after graduating from high school. The appropriate specification of the choice set available to high school leavers is as follows: private four-year college, public four-year college, private two-year college, public two-year college, employed and unemployed. We test for several possible combinations of these choices and find that these pooled models are all rejected in favour of the full model. The transition from high school to college and to work is more complex than previous studies have recognised. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2003JEL classification: I21, J24, Key words: School-to-work transition, college enrolment, human capital,
This paper argues that the value added score published for all publicly funded secondary schools in England is an unreliable indicator of school performance. A substantial proportion of the between-school variation in the value added score is accounted for by factors outside the school's control. These factors include several pupil-related variables such as the proportion of pupils on free school meals, the authorized absence rate of pupils and the proportion of pupils from ethnic minority backgrounds. The value added score is also related to several school characteristics such as the school's admission policy and its subject specialism. The main policy recommendation of this paper is that the value added score should not be used as a performance indicator, but should be used to gain a better understanding of why the value added score varies between schools.
We investigate the determinants of high school students' academic attainment in mathematics, reading and science in the United States; focusing particularly on possible differential impacts of ethnicity and family background across the distribution of test scores. Using data from the NELS2000 and employing quantile regression, we find two important results. First, the gaps in mathematics, reading and science test scores among ethnic groups vary across the conditional quantiles of the measured test scores. Specifically, Blacks and Hispanics tend to fare worse in their attainment at higher quantiles, particularly in science. Secondly, the effects of family background factors such as parental education and father's occupation also vary across quantiles of the test score distribution. The implication of these findings is that the influence racial and family background factors may have on academic attainment, which are commonly identified on the basis of a conditional mean distribution of test scores, may not tell the whole story the attainment discourse has to note.educational attainment, quantile regression, United States,
BackgroundOne of the most significant barriers to tax reform and tax rate increases in Vietnam is the threat of illicit trade promulgated by the tobacco industry. The industry argues that higher taxes will stimulate smuggling, thereby undermining tax policy objectives and impairing the domestic tobacco manufacturing. Unfortunately, there is a dearth of updated and independent studies to verify this claim and inform the tax reform in the country.ObjectivesThe present paper attempts to generate new estimates of the illicit consumption and compare them to a prior study to ascertain the changes in the levels of the illicit trade after a tobacco excise tax increase.MethodsThe study uses primary data collected from the Tobacco Consumption Survey in late 2017. It is a multistage cluster random household survey, covering a sample size of over 2700 smokers, and purposively designed to make its results comparable to prior estimates, which have been done before the tax increase. Particularly, we collect packs from selected smokers and perform careful inspection to identify the prevalence of illicit products. In addition to the consumption, we collect data on brand choices, cigarette prices, the types of stores that the smokers bought their cigarettes, as well as their socioeconomic characteristics. They allow us to determine the regional variation of the illicit trade, identify the main illicit cigarette brands, compare the prices of the licit and illicit cigarettes, and examine the main sources of the illicit cigarettes. Incomes of the licit and illicit cigarette smokers are also compared.ResultsContrary to the tobacco industry’s predictions, our estimates demonstrate that the level of the illicit trade declined even after the increase of taxes imposed on tobacco products in Vietnam. The illicit cigarettes account for only about 13.72% of the total cigarette consumption in Vietnam in 2017, lower than the 20.7% estimate in 2012 done by the previous study. The illicit cigarettes are heavily concentrated in the southern provinces of Vietnam bordering Cambodia, and locally accessible to the smokers from grocery stores. Jet and Hero are the two most popular brands, representing over 80% of total illicit consumption in the country. Interestingly, the illicit cigarettes are on average more expensive than the illicit products in Vietnam, unlike many other countries where the former are typically cheaper than the latter. Consequently, as is to be expected, the illicit cigarette smokers tend to earn higher incomes than those smoking the licit products.ConclusionsRaising the taxes levied on tobacco does not necessarily cause higher illicit consumption in Vietnam as widely stated by the tobacco industry. The Government of Vietnam should recognise the tobacco tax policy as the most effective and cost-effective tobacco control measure and establish a clear road map of progressive tobacco excise tax increases so that total tax levied on tobacco accounts for at least 75% of retail price as suggested by the WHO to reduce smoking prevalence in the country.
This paper uses the traditional income framework and a non-monetary framework to estimate intergenerational mobility in economic status for a sample of 26 year-old whites, blacks and Hispanics in the USA using data from the first and fifth sweeps of the National Educational Longitudinal Study (1988 and 2000). Intergenerational income mobility is found to be greater for females than for males, though there are differences between whites, blacks and Hispanics. Transition probabilities indicate that Hispanics are the most upwardly mobile in terms of educational attainment and occupational status. Ordered logits are used to estimate the impact of parental education and occupation on educational and occupational outcomes. JEL Classification: J62
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