The dot pattern expectancy (DPX) task was created to efficiently assess context-processing deficits in patients with schizophrenia. Three studies investigated the characteristics of the DPX relevant for clinical applications. To answer questions regarding the psychometric properties of the task, performance on this task was studied in 2 healthy samples. Acceptable reliability and internal consistency and retest reliability were found for most measures of context processing, but not for a difficulty control condition. These characteristics were also found in a suggested brief version (DPX(brf)), which may be more practical for clinical purposes. In a 3rd study, schizophrenia patients showed a specific deficit in context processing, replicating previous findings. Findings of these studies indicated some promise for use of this task in measuring context processing and also identified characteristics of this task that need to be strengthened to increase reliability, feasibility, and single-subject interpretability.
The main objective of this paper is to offer a detailed analysis of mortality change in the United Kingdom at the beginning the 21st century. Starting from an exploration of 20th century mortality trends, focusing in particular on the 1990s, underlying forces driving trends in longevity are discussed. These include the 'cohort effect' and the 'ageing of mortality improvement'. International mortality statistics and trends are also analysed. The pace of medical advances is discussed, with specific focus on research into the ageing process and a potential treatment for cardiovascular disease. The paper also discusses the potential threat from infectious diseases.The analysis of underlying trends suggests that life expectancy in retirement in the U.K. is likely to increase rapidly in the early part of the 21st century. Some scientists are also claiming that we will be seeing the fruits of anti-ageing research within just a few decades.A core theme of the paper is that future projections should be grounded in as good an understanding of the past as possible. Different methods for projecting future rates of mortality are discussed, and it is noted that emphasis should be placed on the uncertainty surrounding projections.The financial impact of using different assumptions for future mortality is explored. Significant differences in the cost of an annuity or pension arise from the use of the various projection bases.Life assurance companies have already declared significant losses as a result of strengthening reserves on annuity portfolios. Taken together, future increases in life expectancy, increasing awareness of the risk of providing longevity insurance, changes in legislation and shortages in market capacity and capital, may well lead to worsening annuity rates.It is difficult to assess the precise impact of future changes in life expectancy on final salary pension schemes. There is a lack of readily available information on the mortality assumptions being used in practice. It is therefore suggested that more disclosure in this area would be helpful. Employers sponsoring final salary schemes are making promises to their employees that extend up to 70 or 80 years into the future. Actuaries should be clear in spelling out to employers and trustees the nature of the risks behind the promises they are making. Future scheme design should reflect the possibility of substantial increases in life expectancy.An over-riding implication of the anticipated increases in life expectancy is that people will remain in work for longer in the future. The age at which people retire will inevitably have to increase, and this trend will necessarily drive changes in all aspects of our society. As actuaries we have a vital role in helping to inform the wider debate. keywords Mortality; Longevity; Ageing; Annuities; Cohort Effect B.A.
SUMMARYThe combined effects of underwriting and adverse selection among heterogeneous populations are considered, using a simple Markov model. I illustrate the possible extent of the costs of adverse selection ; in all cases, above-average sums assured is the most significant factor.
With the development and increasing accessibility of new genomic tools such as next-generation sequencing, genome-wide association studies, and genomic stratification models, the debate on genetic discrimination in the context of life insurance became even more complex, requiring a review of current practices and the exploration of new scenarios. In this perspective, a multidisciplinary group of international experts representing different interests revisited the genetics and life insurance debate during a 2-day symposium ‘Life insurance: breast cancer research and genetic risk prediction seminar' held in Quebec City, Canada on 24 and 25 September 2012. Having reviewed the current legal, social, and ethical issues on the use of genomic information in the context of life insurance, the Expert Group identified four main questions: (1) Have recent developments in genomics and related sciences changed the contours of the genetics and life insurance debate? (2) Are genomic results obtained in a research context relevant for life insurance underwriting? (3) Should predictive risk assessment and risk stratification models based on genomic data also be used for life insurance underwriting? (4) What positive actions could stakeholders in the debate take to alleviate concerns over the use of genomic information by life insurance underwriters? This paper presents a summary of the discussions and the specific action items recommended by the Expert Group.
A pilot study of telemedicine consultations of 51 dermatology patients showed that the technology worked well, with the diagnosis being able to be made in most patients and over half of the patients being able to be dealt with through this medium only. It could therefore have a valuable screening role. However, many of the patients, in spite of the obvious advantage of an immediate consultant opinion, felt it would be more appropriately used as a review technique.
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