Introduction A randomized trial has demonstrated that lung cancer screening reduces mortality. Identifying participant and program characteristics that influence the cost-effectiveness of screening will help translate trial results into benefits at the population level. Methods Six U.S. cohorts (males and females aged 50, 60, or 70) were simulated in an existing patient-level lung cancer model. Smoking histories reflected observed U.S. patterns. We simulated lifetime histories of 500,000 identical individuals per cohort in each scenario. Costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained ($/QALY) were estimated for each program: CT screening; stand-alone smoking cessation therapies (4–30% 1-year abstinence); and combined programs. Results Annual screening of current and former smokers aged 50–74 cost between $126,000–$169,000/QALY (minimum 20 pack-years of smoking) or $110,000–$166,000/QALY (40 pack-year minimum), compared to no screening and assuming background quit rates. Screening was beneficial but had a higher cost per QALY when the model included radiation-induced lung cancers. If screen participation doubled background quit rates, the cost of annual screening (at age 50, 20 pack-year minimum) was below $75,000/QALY. If screen participation halved background quit rates, benefits from screening were nearly erased. If screening had no effect on quit rates, annual screening cost more but provided fewer QALYs than annual cessation therapies. Annual combined screening/cessation therapy programs at age 50 cost $130,500–$159,700/QALY, compared to annual stand-alone cessation. Conclusions The cost-effectiveness of CT screening will likely be strongly linked to achievable smoking cessation rates. Trials and further modeling should explore the consequences of relationships between smoking behaviors and screen participation.
Age, sex, and racial/ethnic disparities exist, but are understudied in pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC). We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)–Medicare linked database to determine whether survival and treatment disparities persist after adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics. Our study included PDAC patients diagnosed between 1992 and 2011. We used Cox regression to compare survival across age, sex, and race/ethnicity within early‐stage and late‐stage cancer subgroups, adjusting for marital status, urban location, socioeconomics, SEER region, comorbidities, stage, lymph node status, tumor location, tumor grade, diagnosis year, and treatment received. We used logistic regression to compare differences in treatment received across age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Among 20,896 patients, 84% were White, 9% Black, 5% Asian, and 2% Hispanic. Median age was 75; 56% were female and 53% had late‐stage cancer. Among early‐stage patients in the adjusted Cox model, older patient subgroups had worse survival compared with ages 66–69 (HR > 1.1, P < 0.01 for groups >69); no survival differences existed between sexes. Black (HR = 1.1, P = 0.01) and Hispanic (HR = 1.2, P < 0.01) patients had worse survival compared with White. Among late‐stage cancer patients, patients over age 84 had worse survival than those aged 66–69 (HR = 1.1, P < 0.01), and males (HR = 1.08, P < 0.01) had worse survival than females; there were no racial/ethnic differences. Older age and minority race/ethnicity were associated with lower likelihood of receiving chemotherapy, radiation, and/or surgery. Age and racial/ethnic disparities in survival outcomes and treatment received exist for PDAC patients; these disparities persist after adjusting for differences in demographic and clinical characteristics.
Physicians' diagnoses and admission decisions changed frequently after CT, and diagnostic uncertainty was alleviated.
Background and Aim Individuals with type 2 diabetes are at heightened risk for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, which gives rise to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and cirrhosis. Yet, current guidelines do not recommend screening for NASH among these high-risk patients. Using a simulation model, we assessed the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of screening diabetic patients for NASH. Methods A Markov model was constructed to compare two management strategies for 50-year-olds with diabetes. In the No Screening strategy, patients do not undergo screening, although NASH may be diagnosed incidentally over their lifetime. In the NASH Screening strategy, all patients receive a one-time screening ultrasound. Individuals with fatty infiltration on ultrasound then have a liver biopsy, and those found to have NASH receive medical therapy, which decreases progression to cirrhosis. End-points evaluated included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Results Screening for NASH decreased the number of individuals who developed cirrhosis by 12.9 % and resulted in an 11.9 % decrease in liver-related deaths. However, screening resulted in 0.02 fewer QALYs, due to the disutility associated with treatment, and was therefore dominated by the No Screening strategy. When the model excluded this quality-of-life decrement, screening became cost-effective, at an ICER of $42,134 per QALY. Conclusions Screening for NASH may improve liver-related outcomes, but is not cost-effective at present, due to side effects of therapy. As better tolerated treatments for NASH become available, even with modest efficacy, screening for NASH will become cost-effective.
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