Fuel feeding and inhomogeneity of fuel typically cause fluctuations in the circulating fluidized bed (CFB) process. If control systems fail to compensate the fluctuations, the whole plant will suffer from dynamics that is reinforced by the closed-loop controls. This phenomenon causes reducing efficiency and the lifetime of process components. In this paper we address the problem of online mass flow prediction, which is a part of control. Particularly, we consider the problem of learning an accurate predictor with explicit detection of abrupt concept drift and noise handling mechanisms. We emphasize the importance of having domain knowledge concerning the considered case and constructing the ground truth for facilitating the quantitative evaluation of different approaches. We demonstrate the performance of change detection methods and show their effect on the accuracy of the online mass flow prediction with real datasets collected from the experimental laboratory-scale CFB boiler.

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Abstract. Fuel feeding and inhomogeneity of fuel typically cause process fluctuations in the circulating fluidized bed (CFB) process. If control systems fail to compensate for the fluctuations, the whole plant will suffer from fluctuations that are reinforced by the closed-loop controls. This phenomenon causes a reduction of efficiency and lifetime of process components. Therefore, domain experts are interested in developing tools and techniques for getting better understanding of underlying processes and their mutual dependencies in CFB boilers. In this paper we consider an application of data mining technology to the analysis of time series data from a pilot CFB reactor. Namely, we present a rather simple and intuitive approach for online mass flow prediction in CFB boilers. This approach is based on learning and switching regression models. Additionally, noise canceling, and windowing mechanisms are used for improving the robustness of online prediction. We validate our approach with a set of simulation experiments with real data collected from the pilot CFB boiler.

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