Accurate prediction of flowering time helps breeders to develop new varieties that can achieve maximal efficiency in a changing climate. A methodology was developed for the construction of a simulation model for flowering time in which a function for daily progression of the plant from one to the next phenological phase is obtained in analytic form by stochastic minimization. The resulting model demonstrated high accuracy on the recently assembled data set of wild chickpeas. The inclusion of genotype-by-climatic factors interactions accounted to 77% of accuracy in terms of root mean square error. It was found that the impact of minimal temperature is positively correlated with the longitude at primary collection sites, while the impact of day length is negatively correlated. It was interpreted as adaptation of accessions from highlands to lower temperatures and those from lower elevation river valleys to shorter days. We used bootstrap resampling to construct an ensemble of models, taking into account the influence of genotype-by-climatic factors interactions and applied it to forecast the time to flowering for the years 2021–2099, using generated daily weather in Turkey, and for different climate change scenarios. Although there are common trends in the forecasts, some genotypes and SNP groups have distinct trajectories.
Flowering time is an important target for breeders in developing new varieties adapted to changing conditions. A new approach is proposed that uses Approximate Bayesian Computation with Differential Evolution to construct a pool of models for flowering time. The functions for daily progression of the plant from planting to flowering are obtained in analytic form and depend on daily values of climatic factors and genetic information. The resulting pool of models demonstrated high accuracy on the dataset. Day length, solar radiation and temperature had a large impact on the model accuracy, while the impact of precipitation was comparatively small and the impact of maximal temperature has the maximal variation. The model pool was used to investigate the behavior of accessions from the dataset in case of temperature increase by 0.05–6.00°. The time to flowering changed differently for different accessions. The Pearson correlation coefficient between the SNP value and the change in time to flowering revealed weak but significant association of SNP7 with behavior of the accessions in warming climate conditions. The same SNP was found to have a considerable influence on model prediction with a permutation test. Our approach can help breeding programs harness genotypic and phenotypic diversity to more effectively produce varieties with a desired flowering time.
A new modification of the isolation forest called the attention-based isolation forest (ABIForest) is proposed for solving the anomaly detection problem. It incorporates an attention mechanism in the form of Nadaraya–Watson regression into the isolation forest to improve the solution of the anomaly detection problem. The main idea underlying the modification is the assignment of attention weights to each path of trees with learnable parameters depending on the instances and trees themselves. Huber’s contamination model is proposed to be used to define the attention weights and their parameters. As a result, the attention weights are linearly dependent on learnable attention parameters that are trained by solving a standard linear or quadratic optimization problem. ABIForest can be viewed as the first modification of the isolation forest to incorporate an attention mechanism in a simple way without applying gradient-based algorithms. Numerical experiments with synthetic and real datasets illustrate that the results of ABIForest outperform those of other methods. The code of the proposed algorithms has been made available.
A new modification of Isolation Forest called Attention-Based Isolation Forest (AB-IForest) for solving the anomaly detection problem is proposed. It incorporates the attention mechanism in the form of the Nadaraya-Watson regression into the Isolation Forest for improving solution of the anomaly detection problem. The main idea underlying the modification is to assign attention weights to each path of trees with learnable parameters depending on instances and trees themselves. The Huber's contamination model is proposed to be used for defining the attention weights and their parameters. As a result, the attention weights are linearly depend on the learnable attention parameters which are trained by solving the standard linear or quadratic optimization problem. ABIForest can be viewed as the first modification of Isolation Forest, which incorporates the attention mechanism in a simple way without applying gradient-based algorithms. Numerical experiments with synthetic and real datasets illustrate outperforming results of ABIForest. The code of proposed algorithms is available.
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