Malaria transmission is strongly influenced by environmental temperature, but the biological drivers remain poorly quantified. Most studies analyzing malaria-temperature relations, including those investigating malaria risk and the possible impacts of climate change, are based solely on mean temperatures and extrapolate from functions determined under unrealistic laboratory conditions. Here, we present empirical evidence to show that, in addition to mean temperatures, daily fluctuations in temperature affect parasite infection, the rate of parasite development, and the essential elements of mosquito biology that combine to determine malaria transmission intensity. In general, we find that, compared with rates at equivalent constant mean temperatures, temperature fluctuation around low mean temperatures acts to speed up rate processes, whereas fluctuation around high mean temperatures acts to slow processes down. At the extremes (conditions representative of the fringes of malaria transmission, where range expansions or contractions will occur), fluctuation makes transmission possible at lower mean temperatures than currently predicted and can potentially block transmission at higher mean temperatures. If we are to optimize control efforts and develop appropriate adaptation or mitigation strategies for future climates, we need to incorporate into predictive models the effects of daily temperature variation and how that variation is altered by climate change.Anopheles mosquitoes | climate change | diurnal temperature variability | ectotherms | Plasmodium malaria T he basic reproductive number (R 0 ), which defines the number of cases of a disease that arise from one case of the disease introduced into a population of susceptible hosts, is a key epidemiological metric providing essential information for understanding disease risk and for targeting resources for control. For malaria, R 0 is commonly described by the formula R 0 = ma 2 bce −pS /pr [note that this expression is also defined as (R 0 ) 2 ; ref. 1], where m is the vector:human ratio, a vector biting frequency, bc transmission coefficients defining vector competence, p daily vector survival rate, S the extrinsic incubation or development period of the parasite within the vector, and r the recovery rate of the vertebrate hosts from infection. Given that six of seven of these parameters relate in some way to mosquito abundance, biology, or physiology and that mosquitoes are small cold-blooded insects, it is clear that the transmission intensity of malaria will be strongly influenced by environmental temperature (2-6). Accordingly, the dynamics and distribution of malaria are expected to be extremely sensitive to climate change, although the nature and extent of the response remains highly controversial (7-15).The standard relationships describing the effects of temperature on malaria parasite and mosquito life history derive largely from laboratory studies conducted under constant temperature conditions (e.g., ref. 2 and references therein) and tend to use ...

Explaining parasite virulence is a great challenge for evolutionary biology. Intuitively, parasites that depend on their hosts for their survival should be benign to their hosts, yet many parasites cause harm. One explanation for this is that within-host competition favors virulence, with more virulent strains having a competitive advantage in genetically diverse infections. This idea, which is well supported in theory, remains untested empirically. Here we provide evidence that within-host competition does indeed select for high parasite virulence. We examine the rodent malaria Plasmodium chabaudi in laboratory mice, a parasite-host system in which virulence can be easily monitored and competing strains quantified by using strain-specific real-time PCR. As predicted, we found a strong relationship between parasite virulence and competitive ability, so that more virulent strains have a competitive advantage in mixed-strain infections. In transmission experiments, we found that the strain composition of the parasite populations in mosquitoes was directly correlated with the composition of the bloodstage parasite population. Thus, the outcome of within-host competition determined relative transmission success. Our results imply that within-host competition is a major factor driving the evolution of virulence and can explain why many parasites harm their hosts.competition ͉ evolution ͉ parasite ͉ Plasmodium ͉ mixed infection E xplaining virulence is fundamental to understanding the life history of parasites, arguably the most abundant group of creatures on the planet (1). The problem is to explain why parasites, which rely on their hosts for survival and fitness, should cause disease or indeed kill their hosts (2-6). Many explanations of parasite virulence have been put forward (3, 4), but the idea that has received the most attention is that virulence is a consequence of a parasite's efforts to maximize its fitness: parasites require extensive within-host replication to achieve transmission to the next host, but at the same time such replication damages host tissues, increasing the chances of killing the host (2, 3, 7-9). Higher levels of virulence than predicted by this model, however, could arise due to within-host competition between parasite strains (9-14). Many, if not most, parasite infections consist of genetically distinct strains of the same parasite species or contain virulent mutants that have arisen de novo (15). It is generally assumed that parasites that exploit their hosts prudently suffer great fitness losses in hosts simultaneously infected with more aggressive parasites. This is because virulent parasites could kill the host or competitively exclude prudent parasites before the latter have realized transmission. Even though host death also reduces the fitness of virulent parasites, prudent parasites suffer disproportionately and are eliminated by natural selection, a process commonly known as ''the tragedy of the commons'' (16).Several authors (17, 18) have gone so far as to claim that reducing t...

Over the last 20 years, ecological immunology has provided much insight into how environmental factors shape host immunity and host–parasite interactions. Currently, the application of this thinking to the study of mosquito immunology has been limited. Mechanistic investigations are nearly always conducted under one set of conditions, yet vectors and parasites associate in a variable world. We highlight how environmental temperature shapes cellular and humoral immune responses (melanization, phagocytosis and transcription of immune genes) in the malaria vector, Anopheles stephensi. Nitric oxide synthase expression peaked at 30°C, cecropin expression showed no main effect of temperature and humoral melanization, and phagocytosis and defensin expression peaked around 18°C. Further, immune responses did not simply scale with temperature, but showed complex interactions between temperature, time and nature of immune challenge. Thus, immune patterns observed under one set of conditions provide little basis for predicting patterns under even marginally different conditions. These quantitative and qualitative effects of temperature have largely been overlooked in vector biology but have significant implications for extrapolating natural/transgenic resistance mechanisms from laboratory to field and for the efficacy of various vector control tools.