Tuberculosis can be studied at the population level by genotyping strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolated from patients. We use an approximate Bayesian computational method in combination with a stochastic model of tuberculosis transmission and mutation of a molecular marker to estimate the net transmission rate, the doubling time, and the reproductive value of the pathogen. This method is applied to a published data set from San Francisco of tuberculosis genotypes based on the marker IS6110. The mutation rate of this marker has previously been studied, and we use those estimates to form a prior distribution of mutation rates in the inference procedure. The posterior point estimates of the key parameters of interest for these data are as follows: net transmission rate, 0.69/year [95% credibility interval (C.I.) 0.38, 1.08]; doubling time, 1.08 years (95% C.I. 0.64, 1.82); and reproductive value 3.4 (95% C.I. 1.4, 79.7). These figures suggest a rapidly spreading epidemic, consistent with observations of the resurgence of tuberculosis in the United States in the 1980s and 1990s.

A binary phylogenetic network may or may not be obtainable from a tree by the addition of directed edges (arcs) between tree arcs. Here, we establish a precise and easily tested criterion (based on “2-SAT”) that efficiently determines whether or not any given network can be realized in this way. Moreover, the proof provides a polynomial-time algorithm for finding one or more trees (when they exist) on which the network can be based. A number of interesting consequences are presented as corollaries; these lead to some further relevant questions and observations, which we outline in the conclusion.

The emergence of antibiotic resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis has raised the concern that pathogen strains that are virtually untreatable may become widespread. The acquisition of resistance to antibiotics results in a longer duration of infection in a host, but this resistance may come at a cost through a decreased transmission rate. This raises the question of whether the overall fitness of drugresistant strains is higher than that of sensitive strains-essential information for predicting the spread of the disease. Here, we directly estimate the transmission cost of drug resistance, the rate at which resistance evolves, and the relative fitness of resistant strains. These estimates are made by using explicit models of the transmission and evolution of sensitive and resistant strains of M. tuberculosis, using approximate Bayesian computation, and molecular epidemiology data from Cuba, Estonia, and Venezuela. We find that the transmission cost of drug resistance relative to sensitivity can be as low as 10%, that resistance evolves at rates of Ϸ0.0025-0.02 per case per year, and that the overall fitness of resistant strains is comparable with that of sensitive strains. Furthermore, the contribution of transmission to the spread of drug resistance is very high compared with acquired resistance due to treatment failure (up to 99%). Estimating such parameters directly from in vivo data will be critical to understanding and responding to antibiotic resistance. For instance, projections using our estimates suggest that the prevalence of tuberculosis may decline with successful treatment, but the proportion of cases associated with resistance is likely to increase.antibiotic resistance ͉ approximate Bayesian computation ͉ bacterial evolution ͉ molecular epidemiology ͉ stochastic model

The variation in genome arrangements among bacterial taxa is largely due to the process of inversion. Recent studies indicate that not all inversions are equally probable, suggesting, for instance, that shorter inversions are more frequent than longer, and those that move the terminus of replication are less probable than those that do not. Current methods for establishing the inversion distance between two bacterial genomes are unable to incorporate such information. In this paper we suggest a group-theoretic framework that in principle can take these constraints into account. In particular, we show that by lifting the problem from circular permutations to the affine symmetric group, the inversion distance can be found in polynomial time for a model in which inversions are restricted to acting on two regions. This requires the proof of new results in group theory, and suggests a vein of new combinatorial problems concerning permutation groups on which group theorists will be needed to collaborate with biologists. We apply the new method to inferring distances and phylogenies for published Yersinia pestis data.

Phylogenetic networks are a generalization of phylogenetic trees that are used to represent non-tree-like evolutionary histories that arise in organisms such as plants and bacteria, or uncertainty in evolutionary histories. An unrooted phylogenetic network on a non-empty, finite set X of taxa, or network, is a connected, simple graph in which every vertex has degree 1 or 3 and whose leaf set is X . It is called a phylogenetic tree if the underlying graph is a tree. In this paper we consider properties of tree-based networks, that is, networks that can be constructed by adding edges into a phylogenetic tree. We show that although they have some properties in common with their rooted analogues which have recently drawn much attention in the literature, they have some striking differences in terms of both their structural and computational properties. We expect that our results could eventually have applications to, for example, detecting horizontal gene transfer or hybridization which are important factors in the evolution of many organisms.

Background: Molecular typing methods are commonly used to study genetic relationships among bacterial isolates. Many of these methods have become standardized and produce portable data. A popular approach for analyzing such data is to construct graphs, including phylogenies. Inferences from graph representations of data assist in understanding the patterns of transmission of bacterial pathogens, and basing these graph constructs on biological models of evolution of the molecular marker helps make these inferences. Spoligotyping is a widely used method for genotyping isolates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis that exploits polymorphism in the direct repeat region. Our goal was to examine a range of models describing the evolution of spoligotypes in order to develop a visualization method to represent likely relationships among M. tuberculosis isolates.

Accurate estimation of evolutionary distances between taxa is important for many phylogenetic reconstruction methods. Distances can be estimated using a range of different evolutionary models, from single nucleotide polymorphisms to large-scale genome rearrangements. Corresponding corrections for genome rearrangement distances fall into 3 categories: Empirical computational studies, Bayesian/MCMC approaches, and combinatorial approaches. Here, we introduce a maximum likelihood estimator for the inversion distance between a pair of genomes, using a group-theoretic approach to modelling inversions introduced recently. This MLE functions as a corrected distance: in particular, we show that because of the way sequences of inversions interact with each other, it is quite possible for minimal distance and MLE distance to differently order the distances of two genomes from a third. The second aspect tackles the problem of accounting for the symmetries of circular arrangements. While, generally, a frame of reference is locked, and all computation made accordingly, this work incorporates the action of the dihedral group so that distance estimates are free from any a priori frame of reference. The philosophy of accounting for symmetries can be applied to any existing correction method, for which examples are offered.

Phylogenetic networks are a type of directed acyclic graph that represent how a set X of present-day species are descended from a common ancestor by processes of speciation and reticulate evolution. In the absence of reticulate evolution, such networks are simply phylogenetic (evolutionary) trees. Moreover, phylogenetic networks that are not trees can sometimes be represented as phylogenetic trees with additional directed edges placed between their edges. Such networks are called tree-based, and the class of phylogenetic networks that are tree-based has recently been characterised. In this paper, we establish a number of new characterisations of tree-based networks in terms of path partitions and antichains (in the spirit of Dilworth's theorem), as well as via matchings in a bipartite graph. We also show that a temporal network is treebased if and only if it satisfies an antichain-to-leaf condition. In the second part of the paper, we define three indices that measure the extent to which an arbitrary phylogenetic network deviates from being tree-based. We describe how * Corresponding author.E-mail addresses: a.francis@westernsydney.edu.au (A. Francis), charles.semple@canterbury.ac.nz (C. Semple), mike.steel@canterbury.ac.nz (M. Steel).