In complex spatial models, as used to predict the climate response to greenhouse gas emissions, parameter variation within plausible bounds has major effects on model behavior of interest. Here, we present an unprecedentedly large ensemble of >57,000 climate model runs in which 10 parameters, initial conditions, hardware, and software used to run the model all have been varied. We relate information about the model runs to large-scale model behavior (equilibrium sensitivity of global mean temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide). We demonstrate that effects of parameter, hardware, and software variation are detectable, complex, and interacting. However, we find most of the effects of parameter variation are caused by a small subset of parameters. Notably, the entrainment coefficient in clouds is associated with 30% of the variation seen in climate sensitivity, although both low and high values can give high climate sensitivity. We demonstrate that the effect of hardware and software is small relative to the effect of parameter variation and, over the wide range of systems tested, may be treated as equivalent to that caused by changes in initial conditions. We discuss the significance of these results in relation to the design and interpretation of climate modeling experiments and large-scale modeling more generally.classification and regression trees ͉ climate change ͉ distributed computing ͉ general circulation models ͉ sensitivity analysis S imulation with complex mechanistic spatial models is central to science from the level of molecules (1) via biological systems (2, 3) to global climate (4). The objective typically is a mechanistically based prediction of system-level behavior. However, both through incomplete knowledge of the system simulated and the approximations required to make such models tractable, the ''true'' or ''optimal'' values of some model parameters necessarily will be uncertain. A limiting factor in such simulations is the availability of computational resources. Thus, combinations of plausible parameter values rarely are tested, leaving the dependence of conclusions on the particular parameters chosen unknown.Observations of the modeled system are vital for model verification and analysis, e.g., turning model output into probabilistic predictions of real-world system behavior (5-7). However, typically, few observations are available relative to the complexity of the model. There also may be little true replicate data available. For instance, there can be only one observational time series for global climate. Thus, if the same observations are used to fit parameter values, there is a severe risk of overfitting, gaining limited verisimilitude at the cost of the mechanistic insight and predictive ability for which the model originally was designed.To avoid fitting problems, parameter estimates must be refined directly. In some biological systems, direct and simultaneous measurement of large numbers of system parameters (e.g., protein binding or catalytic constants) soon may be possible. I...

Abstract. We quantify the agreement between permafrost distributions from PMIP2 (Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project) climate models and permafrost data. We evaluate the ability of several climate models to represent permafrost and assess the variability between their results.Studying a heterogeneous variable such as permafrost implies conducting analysis at a smaller spatial scale compared with climate models resolution. Our approach consists of applying statistical downscaling methods (SDMs) on largeor regional-scale atmospheric variables provided by climate models, leading to local-scale permafrost modelling. Among the SDMs, we first choose a transfer function approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) to produce high-resolution climatology of air temperature at the surface. Then we define permafrost distribution over Eurasia by air temperature conditions. In a first validation step on present climate (CTRL period), this method shows some limitations with non-systematic improvements in comparison with the large-scale fields.So, we develop an alternative method of statistical downscaling based on a Multinomial Logistic GAM (ML-GAM), which directly predicts the occurrence probabilities of localscale permafrost. The obtained permafrost distributions appear in a better agreement with CTRL data. In average for the nine PMIP2 models, we measure a global agreement with CTRL permafrost data that is better when using ML-GAM than when applying the GAM method with air Correspondence to: G. Levavasseur (guillaume.levavasseur@lsce.ipsl.fr) temperature conditions. In both cases, the provided local information reduces the variability between climate models results. This also confirms that a simple relationship between permafrost and the air temperature only is not always sufficient to represent local-scale permafrost.Finally, we apply each method on a very different climate, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) time period, in order to quantify the ability of climate models to represent LGM permafrost. The prediction of the SDMs (GAM and ML-GAM) is not significantly in better agreement with LGM permafrost data than large-scale fields. At the LGM, both methods do not reduce the variability between climate models results. We show that LGM permafrost distribution from climate models strongly depends on large-scale air temperature at the surface.LGM simulations from climate models lead to larger differences with LGM data than in the CTRL period. These differences reduce the contribution of downscaling.

Abstract. climateprediction.net is a large public resource distributed scientific computing project. Members of the public download and run a full-scale climate model, donate their computing time to a large perturbed physics ensemble experiment to forecast the climate in the 21st century and submit their results back to the project. The amount of data generated is large, consisting of tens of thousands of individual runs each in the order of tens of megabytes. The overall dataset is, therefore, in the order of terabytes. Access and analysis of the data is further complicated by the reliance on donated, distributed, federated data servers. This paper will discuss the problems encountered when the data required for even a simple analysis is spread across several servers and how webservice technology can be used; how different user interfaces with varying levels of complexity and flexibility can be presented to the application scientists, how using existing web technologies such as HTTP, SOAP, XML, HTML and CGI can engender the reuse of code across interfaces; and how application scientists can be notified of their analysis' progress and results in an asynchronous architecture.

We quantify the agreement between permafrost distributions from PMIP2 (Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project) climate models and permafrost data. We evaluate the ability of several climate models to represent permafrost and assess the inter-variability between them. <br><br> Studying an heterogeneous variable such as permafrost implies to conduct analysis at a smaller spatial scale compared with climate models resolution. Our approach consists in applying statistical downscaling methods (SDMs) on large- or regional-scale atmospheric variables provided by climate models, leading to local permafrost modelling. Among the SDMs, we first choose a transfer function approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) to produce high-resolution climatology of surface air temperature (SAT). Then, we define permafrost distribution over Eurasia by SAT conditions. In a first validation step on present climate (CTRL period), GAM shows some limitations with non-systemic improvements in comparison with the large-scale fields. So, we develop an alternative method of statistical downscaling based on a stochastic generator approach through a Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR), which directly models the probabilities of local permafrost indices. The obtained permafrost distributions appear in a better agreement with data. In both cases, the provided local information reduces the inter-variability between climate models. Nevertheless, this also proves that a simple relationship between permafrost and the SAT only is not always sufficient to represent local permafrost. <br><br> Finally, we apply each method on a very different climate, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) time period, in order to quantify the ability of climate models to represent LGM permafrost. Our SDMs do not significantly improve permafrost distribution and do not reduce the inter-variability between climate models, at this period. We show that LGM permafrost distribution from climate models strongly depends on large-scale SAT. The differences with LGM data, larger than in the CTRL period, reduce the contribution of downscaling and depend on several factors deserving further studies

The GridPP Collaboration is building a UK computing Grid for particle physics, as part of the international effort towards computing for the Large Hadron Collider. The project, funded by the UK Particle Physics and Astronomy Research Council (PPARC), began in September 2001 and completed its first phase 3 years later. GridPP is a collaboration of approximately 100 researchers in 19 UK university particle physics groups, the Council for the Central Laboratory of the Research Councils and CERN, reflecting the strategic importance of the project. In collaboration with other European and US efforts, the first phase of the project demonstrated the feasibility of developing, deploying and operating a Grid-based computing system to meet the UK needs of the Large Hadron Collider experiments. This note describes the work undertaken to achieve this goal. S Supplementary documentation is available from stacks.iop.org/JPhysG/32/N1. References to sections S1, S2.1, etc are to sections within this online supplement.

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We quantify the agreement between permafrost distributions from PMIP2 (Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project) climate models and permafrost data. We evaluate the ability of several climate models to represent permafrost and assess the inter-variation between them. <br><br> Studying an heterogeneous variable such as permafrost implies to conduct analysis at a smaller spatial scale compared with climate models resolution. Our approach consists in applying statistical downscaling methods (SDMs) on large- or regional-scale atmospheric variables provided by climate models, leading to local-scale permafrost modelling. Among the SDMs, we first choose a transfer function approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) to produce high-resolution climatology of air temperature at the surface. Then, we define permafrost distribution over Eurasia by air temperature conditions. In a first validation step on present climate (CTRL period), this method shows some limitations with non-systemic improvements in comparison with the large-scale fields. <br><br> So, we develop an alternative method of statistical downscaling based on a Multinomial Logistic GAM (ML-GAM), which directly predicts the occurrence probabilities of local-scale permafrost. The obtained permafrost distributions appear in a better agreement with data. In average for the nine PMIP2 models, we measure a global agreement by kappa statistic of 0.80 with CTRL permafrost data, against 0.68 for the GAM method. In both cases, the provided local information reduces the inter-variation between climate models. This also confirms that a simple relationship between permafrost and the air temperature only is not always sufficient to represent local-scale permafrost. <br><br> Finally, we apply each method on a very different climate, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) time period, in order to quantify the ability of climate models to represent LGM permafrost. The prediction of the SDMs is not significantly better than large-scale fields with 0.46 (GAM) and 0.49 (ML-GAM) of global agreement with LGM permafrost data. At the LGM, both methods do not reduce the inter-variation between climate models. We show that LGM permafrost distribution from climate models strongly depends on large-scale air temperature at the surface. LGM simulations from climate models lead to larger differences with permafrost data, than in the CTRL period. These differences reduce the contribution of downscaling and depend on several other factors deserving further studies

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