Accurate and high-resolution data reflecting different climate scenarios are vital for policy makers when deciding on the development of future energy resources, electrical infrastructure, transportation networks, agriculture, and many other societally important systems. However, state-of-the-art long-term global climate simulations are unable to resolve the spatiotemporal characteristics necessary for resource assessment or operational planning. We introduce an adversarial deep learning approach to super resolve wind velocity and solar irradiance outputs from global climate models to scales sufficient for renewable energy resource assessment. Using adversarial training to improve the physical and perceptual performance of our networks, we demonstrate up to a 50× resolution enhancement of wind and solar data. In validation studies, the inferred fields are robust to input noise, possess the correct small-scale properties of atmospheric turbulent flow and solar irradiance, and retain consistency at large scales with coarse data. An additional advantage of our fully convolutional architecture is that it allows for training on small domains and evaluation on arbitrarily-sized inputs, including global scale. We conclude with a super-resolution study of renewable energy resources based on climate scenario data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report.

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Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD)—the study of electrically conducting fluids—can be harnessed to produce efficient, low‐emissions power generation. Today, computational modeling assists engineers in studying candidate designs for such generators. However, these models are computationally expensive, so thoroughly studying the effects of the model's many input parameters on output predictions is typically infeasible. We study two approaches for reducing the input dimension of the models: (i) classical dimensional analysis based on the inputs' units and (ii) active subspaces, which reveal low‐dimensional subspaces in the space of inputs that affect the outputs the most. We also review the mathematical connection between the two approaches that leads to consistent application. We study both the simplified Hartmann problem, which admits closed form expressions for the quantities of interest, and a large‐scale computational model with adjoint capabilities that enable the derivative computations needed to estimate the active subspaces. The dimension reduction yields insights into the driving factors in the MHD power generation models, which may aid generator designers who employ high‐fidelity computational models.

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Summary As deployment of wind energy continues to expand, computationally efficient tools for predicting wind plant performance over a wide range of layout designs, technology innovations, and spatial locations are increasingly important for policy and investment decisions. We demonstrate two approaches to training a surrogate model to predict annual energy production (AEP) of parameterized wind plant layouts: one using a Gaussian process (GP) and the other using a fully convolutional neural network (FCNN). We leverage the powerful FCNN architecture by encoding wind plant design parameters and output response surface as an image. The FCNN produces more accurate results than the GP with mean absolute errors equivalent to 1% and 1.9% of plant rated power, respectively, although the GP performs well under limited training data and provides useful uncertainty information. We also evaluate a surrogate model for wake steering, enabling a nationwide assessment of the impact of plant control strategies and plant layout decisions. Across two million locations, we find that wake steering strategies boost AEP with relative gains upwards of 3%. Gains are most pronounced at sites without a dominant wind direction and where layout optimization is less fruitful. Additionally, we perform a nationwide sensitivity analysis showing that wake steering can mitigate wake losses from higher density plant layouts. Our results suggest that regions which have not been previously viable for wind deployment due to moderate wind resources are especially well enhanced by wake steering strategies that could help overcome land constraints and inflexible layout options, potentially identifying new deployment opportunities.

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