Being able to evaluate risks is an important task in many areas of human activity: economics, ecology, etc. Usually, environmental risk assessment is carried out on the basis of multiple and sometimes conflicting factors. Using multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) methodology is one of the possible ways to solve the problem. Methodologies of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) are the most commonly used MCDM methods, which combine subjective and personal preferences in risk assessment process. However, AHP involves human subjectivity, which introduces vagueness type of uncertainty and requires the usage of decision making under those uncertainties. In this paper it was considered to deal with uncertainty by using the fuzzy-based techniques. However, nowadays there exist multiple Fuzzy AHP methodologies developed by different authors. In this paper, these Fuzzy AHP methodologies will be compared, and the most appropriate Fuzzy AHP methodology for the application in case of environmental risks assessment will be offered on the basis of this comparison.
-Being able to evaluate risks is an important task in many areas of human activity: economics, ecology, etc. Usually, environmental risk assessment is carried out on the basis of multiple and sometimes conflicting factors. Using multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) methodology is one of the possible ways to solve the problem. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is one of the most commonly used MCDM methods, which combines subjective and personal preferences in the risk assessment process. However, the AHP involves human subjectivity, which introduces vagueness type of uncertainty and requires the use of decision making under those uncertainties. In this paper, work with uncertainty is considered using fuzzy-based techniques. The paper also analyses the ecological risk assessment towards human health in case of gaseous substance escape at a chemical factory using the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process.
Risk assessment is an important task in many areas of human activity: economic, technical, ecological etc. Preliminary data adequacy in risk assessments is carried out on the basis of statistical methods and experts' evaluation on potential losses and probabilities of the event. But in many cases, risk assessment must be carried out under the conditions of lack of initial information or uncertainty of information. For that reason, special risk assessment approaches (methods) are necessary. One of them is the usage of fuzzy logic approach. In this paper, fuzzy logic approach is used to manage this uncertainty in information concerning accidental releases of toxic chemicals at chemical plants. This approach can be used by plant risk advisers in Latvia to make right decisions in the situations where chemical releases can harm not only the environment but also human health.
-Due to the increased spread of invasive animals and plants in the territory of Latvia, the necessity of ecological risk assessment related to such kind of spread has grown lately. In cases with sufficient statistical data, the risk assessment may be successfully performed on the basis of statistical methods. The amount of statistical data in the context of spread of invasive animals and plants is pretty poor; therefore, the only method of ecological risk assessment remains subjective judgements of experts. The present paper proposes using a programming tool for ecological risk analysis elaborated by the authors. With the help of this programming tool the method of Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchical Process is implemented. The elements of the pairwise comparison matrix are allowed to be expressed by triangular and trapezoidal fuzzy sets. The presented tool makes it possible to design the fuzzy pair-wise comparison matrix and process the results in a user-friendly way.
<p class="R-AbstractKeywords"><span lang="EN-US">Being able to evaluate risks is an important task in many areas of human activity: economics, ecology, etc. In case of a sufficient amount of source information the risk is evaluated using statistical methods. However, in reality the sufficiency of statistical data in risk assessment is more exceptional than normal. In such cases experts’ assessment make the only source of data. Experts are able to provide the necessary for analysis data due to their professional knowledge and experience. Certain amount of factors, which is to be evaluated by an expert (experts), significantly affects the process of experts’ assessment. If a big number of relevant factors occur, an expert may face a problem of defining links between “factors” and “outcome”. Fuzzy multiple criteria decision making approach can be used to solve the problem. Ecological risk assessment towards human health in case of gaseous substances escape at a chemical factory using hierarchical method and fuzzy multiple criteria decision making approach has been analyzed in the article.</span></p>
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