African swine fever (ASF) is an incurable viral disease of domestic and wild pigs. A large-scale spread of ASF began in Eurasia in 2007 and has affected territories from Belgium to the Far East, occurring as both local- and regional-level epidemics. In 2020, a massive ASF epidemic emerged in the southeastern region of European Russia in the Samara Oblast and included 41 outbreaks of ASF in domestic pigs and 40 cases in wild boar. The Samara Oblast is characterized by a relatively low density of wild boar (0.04–0.05 head/km2) and domestic pigs (1.1–1.3 head/km2), with a high prevalence of small-scale productions (household farms). This study aims to understand the driving forces of the disease and perform a risk assessment for this region using complex epidemiological analyses. The socioeconomic and environmental factors of the ASF outbreak were explored using Generalized Linear Logistic Regression, where ASF infection status of the Samara Oblast districts was treated as a response variable. Presence of the virus in a district was found to be most significantly (p < 0.05) associated with the importation of live pigs from ASF-affected regions of Russia (OR = 371.52; 95% CI: 1.58–87290.57), less significantly (p < 0.1) associated with the density of smallholder farms (OR = 2.94; 0.82–10.59), volume of pork products' importation from ASF-affected regions of Russia (OR = 1.01; 1.00–1.02), summary pig population (OR = 1.01; 0.99–1.02), and insignificantly (p > 0.1) associated with presence of a common border with an ASF-affected region (OR = 89.2; 0.07–11208.64). No associations were found with the densities of pig and wild boar populations. The colocation analysis revealed no significant concentration of outbreaks in domestic pigs near cases in wild boar or vice versa. These results suggest that outbreaks notified in low biosecurity household farms were mainly associated with the transportation and trade of pigs and pork products from ASF-affected regions of Russia. The findings underline the importance of taking into account animal transportation data while conducting future studies to develop a risk map for the region and the rest of European Russia.
Leptospirosis is a re-emerging zoonotic infectious disease caused by pathogenic bacteria of the genus Leptospira. Regional differences in the disease manifestation and the role of ecological factors, specifically in regions with a subarctic and arctic climate, remain poorly understood. We here explored environmental and socio-economic features associated with leptospirosis cases in livestock animals in the Russian Arctic during 2000–2019. Spatial analysis suggested that the locations of the majority of 808 cases were in “boreal” or “polar” climate regions, with “cropland,” “forest,” “shrubland,” or “settlements” land-cover type, with a predominance of “Polar Moist Cropland on Plain” ecosystem. The cases demonstrated seasonality, with peaks in March, June, and August, corresponding to the livestock pasturing practices. We applied the Forest-based Classification and Regression algorithm to explore the relationships between the cumulative leptospirosis incidence per unit area by municipal districts (G-rate) and a number of socio-economic, landscape, and climatic factors. The model demonstrated satisfactory performance in explaining the observed disease distribution (R2 = 0.82, p < 0.01), with human population density, livestock units density, the proportion of crop area, and budgetary investments into agriculture per unit area being the most influential socio-economic variables. Climatic factors demonstrated a significantly weaker influence, with nearly similar contributions of mean yearly precipitation and air temperature and number of days with above-zero temperatures. Using a projected climate by 2100 according to the RCP8.5 scenario, we predict a climate-related rise of expected disease incidence across most of the study area, with an up to 4.4-fold increase in the G-rate. These results demonstrated the predominant influence of the population and agricultural production factors on the observed increase in leptospirosis cases in livestock animals in the Russian Arctic. These findings may contribute to improvement in the regional system of anti-leptospirosis measures and may be used for further studies of livestock leptospirosis epidemiology at a finer scale.
На примере продовольственного сектора показано, что тенденции концентрации бизнеса в российской экономике привели к его расслоению по трем уровням с разными институциональными условиями и доминированием верхних уровней (альфа-бизнес) над нижними (бета-и гамма-бизнес). Анализируются особенности российского альфа-бизнеса на фоне аналогичной мировой иерархии, логика его трансформации и взаимодействие с государством. Определяются требования к стратегии развития страны, построенной на функциональном равновесии различных уровней бизнеса. Ключевые слова Продовольственный сектор, крупный бизнес, институциональная рента, многоуровневая экономика, стратегия развития страны. Вводные замечания Реализация амбициозных целей майских указов может привести к появлению новых лидеров роста и заметным перестановкам в позициях действующих компаний. При этом государство должно поддерживать баланс интересов разного бизнеса и устойчивость движения к целям. Задачи статьи-оценить возможность такого баланса и пути его обеспечения. В большинстве секторов российской экономики, в частности на продовольственном рынке, в последние два десятилетия активно идут схожие процессы укрупнения бизнеса, различающиеся лишь размахом, скоростью, более ран-ним или поздним стартом и своими последствиями. Преимущества крупного бизнеса перед остальными обычно связывают с эффектом масштаба, проявляющимся в низких издержках, широкой линейке продукции, большом охвате рынков. Рыночная успешность позволяет ему инвестировать в развитие, закрепляя опережение конкурентов. По мере роста к его рыночным преимуществам прибавляются институциональныесвязанные, например, с работой в зарубежном правовом пространстве, поддержкой государством, аффилированностью с крупными игроками. Становятся важными лоббирование не-Альфа-бизнес на российском продовольственном рынке Блохин Андрей Алексеевич-главный научный сотрудник Института народнохозяйственного прогнозирования РАН, доктор экономических наук, профессор Финансового университета при Правительстве Российской Федерации. Ломакин-Румянцев Илья Вадимович-директор Центра развития потребительского рынка Московской школы управления Сколково, кандидат экономических наук. Наумов Станислав Александрович-генеральный директор Евразийского центра интеграционных исследований и коммуникаций, кандидат философских наук. Andrei A. Blokhin-Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Il'ya V. Lomakin-Rumyantsev-Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO.
The Yamal Peninsula in the Russian Federation experienced a massive outbreak of anthrax in reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) in July–August 2016, with 2,650 (6.46% of the total susceptible population) animals infected, of which 2,350 died (case fatality rate of 88.67%). In our study, we analyzed climatic and epidemiological factors that could have triggered the outbreak. The cancelation of reindeer vaccination against anthrax in 2007 resulted in an increase in population susceptibility. In response to the outbreak, total vaccination of all susceptible animals was resumed. To assess the vaccination effectiveness, we tested 913 samples of blood serum taken from vaccinated reindeer using an antigenic erythrocyte diagnostic kit to detect specific anti-anthrax antibodies via an indirect hemagglutination assay (IHA) 9 months after vaccination. We found that 814 samples had sufficiently high levels of anti-anthrax antibodies to indicate a protection level of 89% (95% confidence interval: 87–91%) of the whole reindeer population. Abnormally high ambient temperature in the summer of 2016 contributed to the thawing of permafrost and viable Bacillus anthracis spores could have become exposed to the surface; the monthly average air temperatures in June, July, and August 2016 were 20–100% higher than those of the previous 30-year period, while the maximum air temperatures were 16–75% higher. Using the projected climate data for 2081–2100 according to the “worst case” RCP8.5 scenario, we demonstrated that the yearly air temperature may average above 0°C across the entire Yamal Peninsula, while the yearly number of days with a mean temperature above 0°C may rise by 49 ± 6 days, which would provide conditions for reactivation of soil anthrax reservoirs. Our results showed that the outbreak of anthrax occurred under conditions of a significant increase in air temperature in the study area, underlined the importance of vaccination for controlling the epidemic process, and demonstrated the effectiveness of monitoring studies using the IHA diagnostic kit for detecting erythrocyte anthrax antigens.
Blackleg is an acute, toxic, infectious, non-contagious disease of domestic and wild ruminants that occurs while the animals are pastured. This article describes an outbreak of blackleg on a farm in Siberia (Russia) in 2019. We provide a detailed description of the cases based on the results of comprehensive diagnostic and epidemiological investigations. For description of case and evaluation, we used the following methods: owner observations, descriptive epidemiology, clinical diagnostics, pathological examination and bacteriology. The distinctive features (in addition to the characteristic features) were as follows: the outbreak of the disease occurred in early spring when there was abundant snow cover and under unfavorable living conditions of animals and traumas; the disease appeared in both vaccinated and unvaccinated cattle; the characteristic clinical signs were low-grade fever, the absence of crepitus, and the presence of haematomas containing erythrocytes with basophilic granularity; thrombs in vessel and vacuolization in tissue of the adrenal gland. This paper aimed to present classical and new clinical and pathology changes in cattle with blackleg in winter conditions of Russian Siberia.
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