This paper is concerned with recursively estimating the internal state of a nonlinear dynamic system by processing noisy measurements and the known system input. In the case of continuous states, an exact analytic representation of the probability density characterizing the estimate is generally too complex for recursive estimation or even impossible to obtain. Hence, it is replaced by a convenient type of approximate density characterized by a finite set of parameters. Of course, parameters are desired that systematically minimize a given measure of deviation between the (often unknown) exact density and its approximation, which in general leads to a complicated optimization problem. Here, a new framework for state estimation based on progressive processing is proposed. Rather than trying to solve the original problem, it is exactly converted into a corresponding system of explicit ordinary first-order differential equations. Solving this system over a finite "time" interval yields the desired optimal density parameters.

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Thick ellipsoids were recently introduced by the authors to represent uncertainty in state variables of dynamic systems, not only in terms of guaranteed outer bounds but also in terms of an inner enclosure that belongs to the true solution set with certainty. Because previous work has focused on the definition and computationally efficient implementation of arithmetic operations and extensions of nonlinear standard functions, where all arguments are replaced by thick ellipsoids, this paper introduces novel operators for specifically evaluating quasi-linear system models with bounded parameters as well as for the union and intersection of thick ellipsoids. These techniques are combined in such a way that a discrete-time state observer can be designed in a predictor-corrector framework. Estimation results are presented for a combined observer-based estimation of state variables as well as disturbance forces and torques in the sense of an unknown input estimator for a hovercraft.