There is an increasing demand for computing the relevant structures, equilibria, and long-timescale kinetics of biomolecular processes, such as protein-drug binding, from high-throughput molecular dynamics simulations. Current methods employ transformation of simulated coordinates into structural features, dimension reduction, clustering the dimension-reduced data, and estimation of a Markov state model or related model of the interconversion rates between molecular structures. This handcrafted approach demands a substantial amount of modeling expertise, as poor decisions at any step will lead to large modeling errors. Here we employ the variational approach for Markov processes (VAMP) to develop a deep learning framework for molecular kinetics using neural networks, dubbed VAMPnets. A VAMPnet encodes the entire mapping from molecular coordinates to Markov states, thus combining the whole data processing pipeline in a single end-to-end framework. Our method performs equally or better than state-of-the-art Markov modeling methods and provides easily interpretable few-state kinetic models.

Generation and analysis of time-series data is relevant to many quantitative fields ranging from economics to fluid mechanics. In the physical sciences, structures such as metastable and coherent sets, slow relaxation processes, collective variables, dominant transition pathways or manifolds and channels of probability flow can be of great importance for understanding and characterizing the kinetic, thermodynamic and mechanistic properties of the system. Deeptime is a general purpose Python library offering various tools to estimate dynamical models based on time-series data including conventional linear learning methods, such as Markov state models (MSMs), Hidden Markov Models and Koopman models, as well as kernel and deep learning approaches such as VAMPnets and deep MSMs. The library is largely compatible with scikit-learn, having a range of Estimator classes for these different models, but in contrast to scikit-learn also provides deep Model classes, e.g. in the case of an MSM, which provide a multitude of analysis methods to compute interesting thermodynamic, kinetic and dynamical quantities, such as free energies, relaxation times and transition paths. The library is designed for ease of use but also easily maintainable and extensible code. In this paper we introduce the main features and structure of the deeptime software. Deeptime can be found under https://deeptime-ml.github.io/.

Recent advances in deep learning frameworks have established valuable tools for analyzing the long-timescale behavior of complex systems, such as proteins. In particular, the inclusion of physical constraints, e.g., time-reversibility, was a crucial step to make the methods applicable to biophysical systems. Furthermore, we advance the method by incorporating experimental observables into the model estimation showing that biases in simulation data can be compensated for. We further develop a new neural network layer in order to build a hierarchical model allowing for different levels of details to be studied. Finally, we propose an attention mechanism, which highlights important residues for the classification into different states. We demonstrate the new methodology on an ultralong molecular dynamics simulation of the Villin headpiece miniprotein.

We propose a deep generative Markov State Model (DeepGenMSM) learning framework for inference of metastable dynamical systems and prediction of trajectories. After unsupervised training on time series data, the model contains (i) a probabilistic encoder that maps from high-dimensional configuration space to a small-sized vector indicating the membership to metastable (long-lived) states, (ii) a Markov chain that governs the transitions between metastable states and facilitates analysis of the long-time dynamics, and (iii) a generative part that samples the conditional distribution of configurations in the next time step. The model can be operated in a recursive fashion to generate trajectories to predict the system evolution from a defined starting state and propose new configurations. The DeepGenMSM is demonstrated to provide accurate estimates of the long-time kinetics and generate valid distributions for molecular dynamics (MD) benchmark systems. Remarkably, we show that DeepGenMSMs are able to make long timesteps in molecular configuration space and generate physically realistic structures in regions that were not seen in training data.

The increasing interest in modeling the dynamics of ever larger proteins has revealed a fundamental problem with models that describe the molecular system as being in a global configuration state. This notion limits our ability to gather sufficient statistics of state probabilities or state-to-state transitions because for large molecular systems the number of metastable states grows exponentially with size. In this manuscript, we approach this challenge by introducing a method that combines our recent progress on independent Markov decomposition (IMD) with VAMPnets, a deep learning approach to Markov modeling. We establish a training objective that quantifies how well a given decomposition of the molecular system into independent subdomains with Markovian dynamics approximates the overall dynamics. By constructing an end-to-end learning framework, the decomposition into such subdomains and their individual Markov state models are simultaneously learned, providing a data-efficient and easily interpretable summary of the complex system dynamics. While learning the dynamical coupling between Markovian subdomains is still an open issue, the present results are a significant step towards learning Ising models of large molecular complexes from simulation data.

In the original version of this Article, financial support was not fully acknowledged. The PDF and HTML versions of the Article have now been corrected to include funding from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft Grant SFB958/A04.

The increasing interest in modeling the dynamics of ever larger proteins has revealed a fundamental problem with models that describe the molecular system as being in a global configuration state. This notion limits our ability to gather sufficient statistics of state probabilities or state-to-state transitions because for large molecular systems the number of metastable states grows exponentially with size. In this manuscript, we approach this challenge by introducing a method that combines our recent progress on independent Markov decomposition (IMD) with VAMPnets, a deep learning approach to Markov modeling. We establish a training objective that quantifies how well a given decomposition of the molecular system into independent subdomains with Markovian dynamics approximates the overall dynamics. By constructing an end-to-end learning framework, the decomposition into such subdomains and their individual Markov state models are simultaneously learned, providing a data-efficient and easily interpretable summary of the complex system dynamics. While learning the dynamical coupling between Markovian subdomains is still an open issue, the present results are a significant step towards learning "Ising models" of large molecular complexes from simulation data.

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