Tipping points can be defined as critical ecosystem thresholds that start self-enforced dynamics pushing systems into new stable states. Many lake ecosystems of arid Central Asia are sensitive to hydrological changes as they are located at the intersection of the influence of the dry Siberian Anticyclone and the relatively humid mid-latitude Westerlies, and their sediment records can be used to study past tipping points. We studied subfossil chironomid remains preserved in a ca. 6000-year-long sediment record from the Central Asian lake Son Kol (Central Kyrgyzstan) to reconstruct past ecosystem dynamics. Our results show abrupt transitions from a chironomid fauna dominated by macrophyte-associated, salinity-indicating taxa, to a vegetation-independent fauna, and subsequently to a macrophyte-associated, freshwater-indicating fauna. A comparison of the chironomid-based environmental reconstruction to other proxy indicators from the same record suggests a phase of increased Westerly strength starting about 4900 cal. yr BP. This increase led to enhanced precipitation and sediment fluxes into the lake, which in turn led to high turbidity levels and consequently to a macrophyte collapse causing abrupt changes in the chironomid fauna. At 4300 cal. yr BP, a weakening of the Westerlies in combination with higher lake levels led to lower turbidity and ultimately to the recovery of the macrophyte population and associated changes in the chironomid assemblage. These two sequences of events show how the occurrence of a gradual change in an external trigger (Westerlies) can trigger a cascade of within-lake processes (turbidity, macrophyte density) and may ultimately lead to an abrupt reorganization of the ecosystem (chironomid fauna), providing models for tipping points.

Fluctuating lake levels are an important driver of ecosystem change, and changes in the precipitation/evaporation balance of a region can lead to undesirable changes in ecosystem functioning. Large-scale changes in hydrology will become increasingly more likely as a result of ongoing climate change in the coming century. This is especially true for the Tibetan Plateau, which plays a crucial role as the “Asian water tower” for the surrounding densely populated regions. Chironomids (Diptera: Chironomidae) have proven to be one of the most valuable bioindicators for monitoring and reconstructing the development of aquatic ecosystems. Besides temperature, water depth and salinity are two of the most important environmental factors affecting chironomids. To study the relationship between chironomids and water depth, we analyzed surface sediment samples of two large Tibetan lakes, Selin Co and Taro Co. These lakes have similar environmental conditions (e.g. elevation, temperature and oxygenation) but show strong differences in salinity (7–10 and 0.5 ppt, respectively). Our results show that the chironomid assemblages in both lakes have similar water depths at which the fauna abruptly changes in composition, despite different faunal assemblages. The most important boundaries were identified at 0.8 and 16 m water depth. While the uppermost meter, the “splash zone”, is characterized by distinctly different conditions, resulting from waves and changing water levels, the cause of the lower zone boundary remains enigmatic. Even though none of the measured water depth-related factors, such as water temperature, oxygen content, sediment properties, light intensity or macrophyte vegetation, show a distinct change at 16 m water depth, comparison to other records show that a similar change in the chironomid fauna occurs at 16 m water depth in large, deep lakes around the world. We propose that this boundary might be connected to water pressure influencing the living conditions of the larvae or the absolute distance to the surface that has to be covered for the chironomid larvae to hatch. We conclude that water depth either directly or indirectly exerts a strong control on the chironomid assemblages even under different salinities, resulting in distribution patterns that can be used to reconstruct past fluctuations in water depths.

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High mountain ranges such as the Tibetan Plateau with an average altitude above 4500 m are topographically complex formations. Elevational gradients, physiographic diversity and climatic heterogeneity have led to highly biodiverse ecosystems in these regions. Mountain ranges can be seen as cradles of evolution and harbour, due to their unique characteristics, a high number of highly adapted species. At the same time these areas are hard to access and therefore taxonomic information is limited. Here we describe a new Acricotopus (Diptera: Chironomidae: Orthocladiinae) larval morphotype occurring in lakes and ponds of differing salinity and water depths located on the Southern and Central Tibetan Plateau. The description is based on larvae and their genetics (ribosomal 18S, 28S and mitochondrial COI sequences) collected from a shallow pond in close proximity to the large saline lake Selin Co. Larvae of Acricotopus indet. morphotype incurvatus are characterized by a mentum with a cluster of lateral teeth, partially folded inwards, a mandible with a toothed lobe in addition to four inner teeth and a sclerotized plate positioned behind the mentum. Up to now, these morphological features have only been found in early instars of other Acricotopus species. The proposed morphotype name is inspired by the peculiar form of the mentum.

Understanding climate and monsoonal dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau is crucial, as recent hydrological changes, evidenced by rising lake levels, will be accelerated by current global warming and may alter aquatic habitats and species inventories. This study combines chironomid assemblages with sedimentological, mineralogical and geochemical data of a short sediment core (37.5 cm) from the high-altitude (> 4,733 m asl), saline (9 g L-1) and shallow (~5 m water depth) Shen Co, located in the southern part of the central Tibetan Plateau. The predominantly littoral, species-poor (10 chironomid morphotypes) chironomid assemblages are dominated by salt-tolerant taxa, that are highly sensitive to lake level fluctuations and macrophyte vegetation dynamics, making them ideally suited for tracking lake level changes over time. Results indicate a period (from ca. 1830 to 1921 CE) of drier conditions with low runoff and high evaporation rates in the Shen Co catchment, as indicated by a dominance of low-Mg calcite and dolomite and increased Ca/Fe and Sr/Rb ratios. This resulted in a decline in lake levels, an increase in salinity and the periodic occurrence of desiccation events at the sampling site. The first chironomid morphotype to appear after the dry period is Acricotopus indet. morphotype incurvatus, which indicate still low (<2 m) but rising lake levels after 1921 CE due to increasing runoff and a lower evaporation/precipitation ratio, as reflected by coarser grain size, higher quartz content and increased TN, TOC and Al/Si ratios. A replacement of A. indet. morphotype incurvatus by Procladius is observed as lake level rise continued after 1950 CE. The highest lake level is proposed for the period since 2006 CE. From 1955 to 1960 CE and from 2011 to 2018 CE, the presence of the phytophilic taxon Psectrocladius sordidellus-type supported abundant macrophyte growth. These changes are consistent with climate reconstructions from the northern and central Tibetan Plateau, indicating warmer and wetter climate conditions since the beginning of the 20th century, which have led to an increase in lake level in a number of Tibetan lakes. Our study specifically highlights 1920 and 1950 as years with enhanced precipitation. This can be attributed to the strong, with overlapping multidecadal cycles of Westerlies and monsoon systems. This study demonstrates the significance of studying small, shallow lakes, as they frequently contain aquatic communities that respond more rapidly to the changes in the lake system. In addition, this study expands our understanding of the ecology of Tibetan chironomid morphotypes, highlighting this group’s potential as paleolimnological proxies for investigating past environmental and climatic changes.