This paper presents estimations of the shadow economies for 162 countries, including developing, Eastern European, Central Asian, and high income OECD countries over 1999 to 2006/2007. According to our estimations, the weighted average size of the shadow economy (as a percentage of 'official' GDP) in Sub-Saharan Africa is 37.6%, in Europe and Central Asia (mostly transition countries) 36.4% and in high income OECD countries 13.4%. We find that an increased burden of taxation (direct and indirect ones), combined with (labour market) regulations and the quality of public goods and services as well as the state of the 'official' economy are the driving forces of the shadow economy.Shadow economy of 162 countries, tax burden, quality of state institutions, regulation, MIMIC model,

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

This paper is a first attempt to study the impact of enforcement on the shadow economy. Using a MIMIC model, we find that a higher share of sub-national government employment and the aspiration of public employees to follow rules significantly deter shadow economic activities. Our results also confirm previous findings: Increased burdens of taxation and regulation as well as the state of the "official" economy are important determinants of the shadow economy. The estimated weighted average informality in 162 countries around the world, including developing, Eastern European, Central Asian, and high-income OECD countries, is 17.1% of "official" GDP.Keywords Shadow economies · Quality of institutions · Enforcement · MIMIC Model JEL Classification O17 · O5 · D78 · H11 · H26