Contrail cirrus are a major component of the climate forcing due to air traffic. For a given contrail cirrus cover, ice water content and ice crystal shape, their impact on radiation is dependent on the number and size of ice crystals. Here we use a global climate model to study the impact of a reduction in initially formed ice crystal numbers, as may be caused by reduced soot number emissions. We find that for reduced initial ice crystal numbers the ice water content is decreased and ice crystal sizes increased, leading to a reduction in contrail cirrus optical depth and doubling the fraction of contrail cirrus that cannot be detected by satellite remote sensing. Contrail cirrus lifetimes and coverage are strongly reduced leading to significant reductions in contrail cirrus radiative forcing. The global climate impact of contrail cirrus is nonlinearly dependent on the reduction in initial ice crystal numbers. A reduction in the initial ice crystal number of 80% leads to a decrease in contrail cirrus radiative forcing by 50%, whereas a twofold reduction leads to a decrease in radiative forcing by approximately 20%. Only a few contrail cirrus outbreaks explain a large percentage of the climate impact. The contrail cirrus climate impact can be effectively mitigated by reducing initial ice crystal concentrations in such outbreak situations. Our results are important for assessments dealing with mitigating the climate impact of aviation and discussions about the use of alternative fuels or lean combustion in aviation.

A conceptual framework to predict microphysical and optical properties of contrail particles within a wingspan behind the source aircraft is developed. Results from two decades of contrail observations and numerical simulations are reviewed forming the basis of theoretical model development. The model utilizes cloud theory applied to the dynamics and thermodynamics of jet aircraft exhaust plumes in upper tropospheric conditions. Droplet nuclei include soot particles emitted from aircraft engines and atmospheric particles entrained into the plume. These precursor particles activate into copious homogeneously freezing water droplets as the plume relative humidity rises beyond liquid water saturation. A unimodal size spectrum of ice particles develops wherein ice particles grow to micrometer mean sizes. Contrail particle formation is analyzed over a wide range of soot emissions relating to conventional jet fuels as well as to alternative aviation fuels producing much less soot and volatile particle emissions. For current aviation fuels and propulsion technology, the number of contrail ice particles scales roughly in proportion to the number of emitted soot particles that act as water condensation nuclei despite their poor hygroscopicity. Close to the contrail formation threshold, only few plume particles can be water activated and freeze. Implications for effects of alternative fuels on contrails, an arena for future scientific exploration, are outlined.

Contrail ice nucleation is mainly controlled by aircraft emissions and the atmospheric state. The nucleation rate can have a strong impact on microphysical processes, optical properties, lifetime, and, therefore, on the climate impact of contrail cirrus. We study contrail ice crystal formation offline for specified atmospheric conditions and its spatial variability in a global climate model. Assuming the standard atmosphere, above around 270 hPa (10 km) contrail ice nucleation is mainly controlled by aircraft soot number emissions and below additionally by atmospheric temperature. Parameterizing contrail ice nucleation in a global climate model, we find that in the northern extratropics contrails form frequently far away from their formation threshold. For current soot number emissions and in case of contrail formation, 90% of emitted soot particles form on average ice crystals around the cruise level and more than 70% between cruise altitudes and 300 hPa. The number of nucleated ice crystals in the extratropics decreases nearly at the same rate as soot number emissions. In contrast, in the tropics around cruise altitudes approximately 60% of contrails develop close to their formation threshold so that on average only about 50% of emitted soot particles can form ice crystals. Below, contrail formation occurs rarely and ice nucleation is reduced more strongly. Of the main air traffic areas, contrail ice nucleation is significantly limited by the atmospheric state over eastern Asia and over the southeastern United States. This limitation is enhanced during the summer months.

The atmospheric state, aircraft emissions, and engine properties determine formation and initial properties of contrails. The synoptic situation controls microphysical and dynamical processes and causes a wide variability of contrail cirrus life cycles. A reduction of soot particle number emissions, resulting, for example, from the use of alternative fuels, strongly impacts initial ice crystal numbers and microphysical process rates of contrail cirrus. We use the European Centre/Hamburg (ECHAM) climate model version 5 including a contrail cirrus modul, studying process rates, properties, and life cycles of contrail cirrus clusters within different synoptic situations. The impact of reduced soot number emissions is approximated by a reduction in the initial ice crystal number, exemplarily studied for 80%. Contrail cirrus microphysical and macrophysical properties can depend much more strongly on the synoptic situation than on the initial ice crystal number. They can attain a large cover, optical depth, and ice water content in long‐lived and large‐scale ice‐supersaturated areas, making them particularly climate‐relevant. In those synoptic situations, the accumulated ice crystal loss due to sedimentation is increased by around 15% and the volume of contrail cirrus, exceeding an optical depth of 0.02, and their short‐wave radiative impact are strongly decreased due to reduced soot emissions. These reductions are of little consequence in short‐lived and small‐scale ice‐supersaturated areas, where contrail cirrus stay optically very thin and attain a low cover. The synoptic situations in which long‐lived and climate‐relevant contrail cirrus clusters can be found over the eastern U.S. occur in around 25% of cases.

Contrail ice nucleation and ice crystal loss during the vortex phase control ice crystal numbers in young contrails and can have a strong impact on the properties and the life cycle of contrail cirrus. For current soot number emissions, ice nucleation is controlled by the number of emitted soot particles and atmospheric conditions while the vortex phase loss depends predominantly on the nucleated ice crystal numbers and the ambient relative humidity. Initial ice crystal numbers after the vortex phase are close to the emitted soot particle number only for very low ambient temperatures (<210 K) and for highly ice‐supersaturated conditions. Higher temperatures and lower relative humidities lead to significantly decreased ice crystal numbers. Global climate model simulations show that initial contrail ice crystal numbers per fuel mass are on average 50%–65% decreased relative to the soot number emission index in the extratropics and more in tropics. In the extratropics, this is mainly caused by a high ice crystal loss during the vortex phase and in the (sub)tropics and at lower flight levels by decreased ice nucleation. Simulated ice crystal numbers per newly formed contrail length agree well with in situ measurements over central Europe within the variability of present‐day soot number emissions. Our estimated global mean contrail cirrus radiative forcing (RF) for the year 2006 is 44 (31–49) mWm−2, around 22% lower than estimated in a previous study. When reducing soot number emissions by 80%, RF decreases by 41%, slightly less than suggested by a recent study.