Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. This series presents research findings based either directly on data from the German SocioEconomic Panel Study (SOEP) or using SOEP data as part of an internationally comparable data set (e.g. CNEF, ECHP, LIS, LWS, CHER/PACO). SOEP is a truly multidisciplinary household panel study covering a wide range of social and behavioral sciences: economics, sociology, psychology, survey methodology, econometrics and applied statistics, educational science, political science, public health, behavioral genetics, demography, geography, and sport science. Terms of use: Documents inThe decision to publish a submission in SOEPpapers is made by a board of editors chosen by the DIW Berlin to represent the wide range of disciplines covered by SOEP. There is no external referee process and papers are either accepted or rejected without revision. Papers appear in this series as works in progress and may also appear elsewhere. They often represent preliminary studies and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be requested from the author directly. Abstract This paper applies semiparametric regression models using penalized splines to investigate the profile of well-being over the life span. Splines have the advantage that they do not require a priori assumptions about the form of the curve. Using data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), the analysis shows a common, quite similar, age-specific pattern of life satisfaction for both Britain and Germany that can be characterized by three age stages. In the first stage, life satisfaction declines until approximately the fifth life decade. In the second age stage, well-being clearly increases and has a second turning point (maximum) after which well-being decreases in the third age stage. Several reasons for the three-phase pattern are discussed. We point to the fact that neither polynomial functions of the third nor the fourth degree describe the relationship adequately: polynomials locate the minimum and the maximum imprecisely. In addition, our analysis discusses the indistinguishability of age, period, and cohort effects: we propose estimating age-period models that control for cohort effects including substantive variables, such as the life expectancy of the birth cohort, and further observed socioeconomic characteristics in the regression.Keywords: subjective well-being, li...
Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. This series presents research findings based either directly on data from the German SocioEconomic Panel Study (SOEP) or using SOEP data as part of an internationally comparable data set (e.g. CNEF, ECHP, LIS, LWS, CHER/PACO). SOEP is a truly multidisciplinary household panel study covering a wide range of social and behavioral sciences: economics, sociology, psychology, survey methodology, econometrics and applied statistics, educational science, political science, public health, behavioral genetics, demography, geography, and sport science. Terms of use: Documents inThe decision to publish a submission in SOEPpapers is made by a board of editors chosen by the DIW Berlin to represent the wide range of disciplines covered by SOEP. There is no external referee process and papers are either accepted or rejected without revision. Papers appear in this series as works in progress and may also appear elsewhere. They often represent preliminary studies and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be requested from the author directly. Abstract This paper applies semiparametric regression models using penalized splines to investigate the profile of well-being over the life span. Splines have the advantage that they do not require a priori assumptions about the form of the curve. Using data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), the analysis shows a common, quite similar, age-specific pattern of life satisfaction for both Britain and Germany that can be characterized by three age stages. In the first stage, life satisfaction declines until approximately the fifth life decade. In the second age stage, well-being clearly increases and has a second turning point (maximum) after which well-being decreases in the third age stage. Several reasons for the three-phase pattern are discussed. We point to the fact that neither polynomial functions of the third nor the fourth degree describe the relationship adequately: polynomials locate the minimum and the maximum imprecisely. In addition, our analysis discusses the indistinguishability of age, period, and cohort effects: we propose estimating age-period models that control for cohort effects including substantive variables, such as the life expectancy of the birth cohort, and further observed socioeconomic characteristics in the regression.Keywords: subjective well-being, li...
We introduce a new approach to regression with imprecisely observed data, combining likelihood inference with ideas from imprecise probability theory, and thereby taking different kinds of uncertainty into account. The approach is very general: it provides a uniform theoretical framework for regression analysis with imprecise data, where all kinds of relationships between the variables of interest may be considered and all types of imprecisely observed data are allowed.Furthermore, we propose a regression method based on this approach, where no parametric distributional assumption is needed and likelihood-based interval estimates of quantiles of the residuals distribution are used to identify a set of plausible descriptions of the relationship of interest. Thus, the proposed regression method is very robust and yields a set-valued result, whose extent is determined by the amounts of both kinds of uncertainty involved in the regression problem with imprecise data: statistical uncertainty and indetermination.In addition, we apply our robust regression method to an interesting question in the social sciences by analyzing data from a social survey. As result we obtain a large set of plausible relationships, reflecting the high uncertainty inherent in the analyzed data set.
Background Smartphones and their built-in sensors allow for measuring functions in disease-related domains through mobile tests. This could improve disease characterization and monitoring, and could potentially support treatment decisions for multiple sclerosis (MS), a multifaceted chronic neurological disease with highly variable clinical manifestations. Practice effects can complicate the interpretation of both improvement over time by potentially exaggerating treatment effects and stability by masking deterioration. Objective The aim of this study is to identify short-term learning and long-term practice effects in 6 active tests for cognition, dexterity, and mobility in user-scheduled, high-frequency smartphone-based testing. Methods We analyzed data from 264 people with self-declared MS with a minimum of 5 weeks of follow-up and at least 5 repetitions per test in the Floodlight Open study, a self-enrollment study accessible by smartphone owners from 16 countries. The collected data are openly available to scientists. Using regression and bounded growth mixed models, we characterized practice effects for the following tests: electronic Symbol Digit Modalities Test (e-SDMT) for cognition; Finger Pinching and Draw a Shape for dexterity; and Two Minute Walk, U-Turn, and Static Balance for mobility. Results Strong practice effects were found for e-SDMT (n=4824 trials), Finger Pinching (n=19,650), and Draw a Shape (n=19,019) with modeled boundary improvements of 40.8% (39.9%-41.6%), 86.2% (83.6%-88.7%), and 23.1% (20.9%-25.2%) over baseline, respectively. Half of the practice effect was reached after 11 repetitions for e-SDMT, 28 repetitions for Finger Pinching, and 17 repetitions for Draw a Shape; 90% was reached after 35, 94, and 56 repetitions, respectively. Although baseline performance levels were highly variable across participants, no significant differences between the short-term learning effects in low performers (5th and 25th percentile), median performers, and high performers (75th and 95th percentile) were found for e-SDMT up to the fifth trial (β=1.50-2.00). Only small differences were observed for Finger Pinching (β=1.25-2.5). For U-Turn (n=15,051) and Static Balance (n=16,797), only short-term learning effects could be observed, which ceased after a maximum of 5 trials. For Two Minute Walk (n=14,393), neither short-term learning nor long-term practice effects were observed. Conclusions Smartphone-based tests are promising for monitoring the disease trajectories of MS and other chronic neurological diseases. Our findings suggest that strong long-term practice effects in cognitive and dexterity functions have to be accounted for to identify disease-related changes in these domains, especially in the context of personalized health and in studies without a comparator arm. In contrast, changes in mobility may be more easily interpreted because of the absence of long-term practice effects, even though short-term learning effects might have to be considered.
WHAT THIS PAPER ADDS Improvements in medical therapy over time may have lowered the risk of stroke in patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis. This study addressed this question by the first comparison of individual patient data from two historical series of large randomised controlled trials with very similar inclusion criteria. Its findings add to the current evidence that stroke risk has decreased over time. Thus, the added benefit of carotid revascularisation to modern medical care needs to be revisited in ongoing and future studies.Objective: Current guidelines recommending rapid revascularisation of symptomatic carotid stenosis are largely based on data from clinical trials performed at a time when best medical therapy was potentially less effective than today. The risk of stroke and its predictors among patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis awaiting revascularisation in recent randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and in medical arms of earlier RCTs was assessed. Methods: The pooled data of individual patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis randomised to stenting (CAS) or endarterectomy (CEA) in four recent RCTs, and of patients randomised to medical therapy in three earlier RCTs comparing CEA vs. medical therapy, were compared. The primary outcome event was any stroke occurring between randomisation and treatment by CAS or CEA, or within 120 days after randomisation. Results: A total of 4 754 patients from recent trials and 1 227 from earlier trials were included. In recent trials, patients were randomised a median of 18 (IQR 7, 50) days after the qualifying event (QE).Twenty-three suffered a stroke while waiting for revascularisation (cumulative 120 day risk 1.97%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75 e 3.17). Shorter time from QE until randomisation increased stroke risk after randomisation (c 2 ¼ 6.58, p ¼ .011). Sixty-one patients had a stroke within 120 days of randomisation in the medical arms of earlier trials (cumulative risk 5%, 95% CI 3.8 e 6.2). Stroke risk was lower in recent than earlier trials when adjusted for time between QE and randomisation, age, severity of QE, and degree of carotid stenosis (HR 0.47, 95% CI 0.25 e 0.88, p ¼ .019). Conclusion:Patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis enrolled in recent large RCTs had a lower risk of stroke after randomisation than historical controls.The added benefit of carotid revascularisation to modern medical care needs to be revisited in future studies. Until then, adhering to current recommendations for early revascularisation of patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis considered to require invasive treatment is advisable.
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