We provide empirical evidence, based on tick-by-tick data for the e-MID euro area interbank market covering 2003 and 2004, that the overnight interest rate shows a clear downward pattern throughout the operating day. Thus, a positive hourly interest rate (half basis point) implicitly emerges from the intraday term structure of the overnight rate. Such a pattern was not detected in the mid-1990s: we explain this evolution as an outcome of the recent trend toward real-time settlement. The estimated intraday interest rate is lower than in the United States: this is due to the different cost of central bank daylight credit. Copyright (c) 2008 The Ohio State University.

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Abstract Central banks' operations and efficiency arguments would suggest that the intraday interest rate should be set to zero. However, a liquidity crisis introduces frictions related to news, which can cause an upward jump of the intraday rate. This paper documents that these dynamics can be partially predicted during turbulent times. Long memory approaches or a combination of them to account for model uncertainty outperform random walk, autoregressive and moving average benchmarks in terms of point and density forecasting. The relative accuracy is higher when the full distribution is predicted. We also document that such statistical accuracy can provide economic gains in investment strategies based on lending in the intraday market. Terms of use: Documents in

We consider the problem of selecting the auxiliary distribution to implement the wild bootstrap for regressions featuring heteroscedasticity of unknown form. Asymptotic re…ne-ments are nominally obtained by choosing a distribution with second and third moments equal to 1. We show that this stipulation may fail in practice, due to the distortion imposed on higher moments. We propose a new class of two-point distributions and suggest using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic as a selection criterion. The results are illustrated by a Monte Carlo experiment.Corresponding author, james.davidson@exeter.ac.uk. We thank Bernard Pearson for helpful discussion.

We provide a simple model, able to explain why the overnight (ON) rate follows a downward intraday pattern, implicitly creating a positive intraday interest rate. While this normally reflects only some frictions, a liquidity crisis introduces a new component: the chance of an upward jump of the ON rate, which must be compensated by an intraday decline of the ON rate. By analyzing real time data for the e-MID interbank market, we show that the intraday rate has increased from a negligible level to a significant one after the start of the liquidity crisis in August 2007, and even more so since September 2008. The intraday rate is affected by the likelihood of a dry-up of the ON market, proxied by the 3M Euribor-Eonia swap spread. This evidence supports our model and it shows that a liquidity crisis impairs the ability of central banks to curb the market price of intraday liquidity, even by providing free daylight overdrafts. Such results have implications for the efficiency of the money market and of payment systems, as well as for the operational framework of central banks.