Abstract. Local diabatic heating and temperature anomaly fields need to be positively correlated for the diabatic heating to maintain a circulation against dissipation. Here we quantify the thermodynamic contribution of local air–sea heat exchange on the evolution of weather systems using an index of the spatial covariance between heat flux at the air–sea interface and air temperature at 850 hPa upstream of the North Atlantic storm track, corresponding with the Gulf Stream extension region. The index is found to be almost exclusively negative, indicating that the air–sea heat fluxes act locally as a sink on potential energy. It features bursts of high activity alternating with longer periods of lower activity. The characteristics of these high-index bursts are elucidated through composite analysis and the mechanisms are investigated in a phase space spanned by two different index components. It is found that the negative peaks in the index correspond with thermodynamic activity triggered by the passage of a weather system over a spatially variable sea-surface temperature field; our results indicate that most of this thermodynamically active heat exchange is realised within the cold sector of the weather systems.

Covariance between meridional wind and air temperature in the lower troposphere quantifies the poleward flux of dry static energy in the atmosphere; in the midlatitudes, this is primarily realised by baroclinic weather systems. It is shown that strong covariance between temperature and meridional wind results from both enhanced correlation and enhanced variance, and that the two evolve according to a distinct temporal structure akin to a life-cycle. Starting from a state of low correlation and variance, there is first a gradual build-up to modal growth at constant, high correlation, followed by a rapid decay at relatively low correlation values. This life-cycle evolution is observed most markedly over oceanic regions, and cannot be explained on purely statistical grounds. We find that local peaks of meridional heat flux are not exclusively linked to the action of individual weather systems and can affect the atmospheric circulation on larger length-scales through wave propagation along waveguides.

Abstract. Despite the crucial role of moist diabatic processes in midlatitude storm tracks and related model biases, we still lack a more complete theoretical understanding of how diabatic processes affect the evolution of storm tracks. To alleviate this shortcoming, we investigate the role of diabatic processes in the evolution of the Northern Hemispheric storm tracks using a framework based on the tendency of the slope of isentropic surfaces as a measure of baroclinic development. We identify opposing behaviours in the near-surface and free troposphere for the relationship between the flattening of the slope of isentropic surfaces and its restoration by diabatic processes. Near the surface (900–800hPa), cold air advection associated with cold air outbreaks initially acts to flatten isentropic surfaces, with air–sea interactions ensuing to restore surface baroclinicity. In the free troposphere (750–350hPa), on the other hand, diabatic generation of slope of isentropic surfaces precedes its depletion due to tilting by eddies, suggesting the primary importance of moist diabatic processes in triggering subsequent baroclinic development. The observed phasing of the diabatic and tilting tendencies of the slope is observed both in upstream and downstream sectors of the North Atlantic and North Pacific storm tracks, rendering the phasing a general feature of midlatitude storm tracks. In addition, we find a correspondence between the diabatic generation of slope of isentropic surfaces and enhanced precipitation as well as moisture availability, further underlining the crucial role of moisture and moist processes in the self-maintenance of storm tracks.

<p><em>Recently it has been shown that initialised climate predictions capture the decadal variability of the winter NAO with high skill. However, the signal from models is often hidden among their large internal variability, which results in a low signal-to-noise ratio. In this study, we quantify the skill of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet’s location and intensity, both in summer and winter. We focus on multi-model decadal predictions made for CMIP6. Overall, we find that models feature a higher skill (as featured by the Anomaly Correlation Coefficient) in predicting the intensity of the jet than its location. For years 2-9, the high winter NAO skill is largely associated with skilful prediction of the jet speed. However, skill in summer is considerably worse than in winter, with models consistently failing to capture the observed southward shift of the Jet between the 1970s and 2010s. Finally, we also show that the skill for the winter NAO is sensitive to the period over which it is computed, and skill drops considerably when evaluating up to the present day, as models fail to capture the observed northern shift and strengthening of the winter eddy-driven jet over the period 2005-2020, as well as the positive trend in the winter NAO.</em></p>