An uncertainty quantification (UQ) analysis is performed on the fuel regression rate model within SIERRA/Fuego by comparing to a series of hydrocarbon tests performed in the Thermal Test Complex. The fuels used for comparison for the fuel regression rate model include methanol, ethanol, JP8, and heptane. The recently implemented flamelet combustion model is also assessed with a limited comparison to data involving measurements of temperature and relative mole fractions within a 2m diameter methanol pool fire. The comparison of the current fuel regression rate model to data without UQ indicates that the model over predicts the fuel regression rate by 65% for methanol, 63% for ethanol, 95% for JP8, and 15% for heptane. If a UQ analysis is performed incorporating a range of values for transmittance, reflectance, and heat flux at the surface the current model predicts fuel regression rates within 50% of measured values. An alternative model which uses specific heats at inlet and boiling temperatures respectively and does not approximate the sensible heat is also compared to data. The alternative model with UQ significantly improves the comparison to within 25% for all fuels except heptane. Even though the proposed alternative model provides better agreement to data, particularly for JP8 and ethanol (within 15%), there are still outstanding issues regarding significant uncertainties which include heat flux gauge measurement and placement, boiling at the fuel surface, large scale convective motion within the liquid, and semi-transparent behavior.
in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com).The increasing demand for natural gas in the United States could significantly increase the number and frequency of marine LNG (liquefied natural gas) imports. Although many studies have been conducted to assess the consequences and risks of potential LNG spills, the increasing importance of LNG imports suggests that consistent methods and approaches be identified and implemented to help ensure protection of public safety and property from a potential LNG spill.For that reason, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Fossil Energy, requested that Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) develop guidance on a risk-based analysis approach to assess and quantify potential threats to an LNG ship, the potential hazards and consequences of a large spill from an LNG ship, and review prevention and mitigation strategies that could be implemented to reduce both the potential and the risks of an LNG spill over water.Specifically, DOE requested:• An in-depth literature search of the experimental and technical studies associated with evaluating the safety and hazards of an LNG spill from an LNG ship • A detailed review of four recent spill modeling studies related to the safety implications of a large-scale LNG spill over water • Evaluation of the potential for breaching an LNG ship cargo tank, both accidentally and intentionally, identification of the potential for such breaches and the potential size of an LNG spill for each breach scenario, and an assessment of the potential range of hazards involved in an LNG spill • Development of guidance on the use of modern, performance-based, risk management ap-proaches to analyze and manage the threats, hazards, and consequences of an LNG spill over water to reduce the overall risks of an LNG spill to levels that are protective of public safety and property.This paper provides an overview of the conclusions and recommendations from that study.
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