The spatio-temporal pattern of peak Holocene warmth (Holocene thermal maximum, HTM) is traced over 140 sites across the Western Hemisphere of the Arctic (0-180 W; north of B60 N). Paleoclimate inferences based on a wide variety of proxy indicators provide clear evidence for warmer-than-present conditions at 120 of these sites. At the 16 terrestrial sites where quantitative estimates have been obtained, local HTM temperatures (primarily summer estimates) were on average 1.670.8 C higher than present (approximate average of the 20th century), but the warming was time-transgressive across the western Arctic. As the precession-driven summer insolation anomaly peaked 12-10 ka (thousands of calendar years ago), warming was concentrated in northwest North America, while cool conditions lingered in the northeast. Alaska and northwest Canada experienced the HTM between ca 11 and 9 ka, about 4000 yr prior to the HTM in northeast Canada. The delayed warming in Quebec and Labrador was linked to the residual Laurentide Ice Sheet, which chilled the region through its impact on surface energy balance and ocean circulation. The lingering ice also attests to the inherent asymmetry of atmospheric and oceanic circulation that predisposes the region to glaciation and modulates the pattern of climatic change. The spatial asymmetry of warming during the HTM resembles the pattern of warming observed in the Arctic over the last several decades. Although the two warmings are described at different temporal scales, and the HTM was additionally affected by the residual Laurentide ice, the similarities suggest there might be a preferred mode of variability in the atmospheric circulation that generates a recurrent pattern of warming under positive radiative forcing. Unlike the HTM, however, future warming will not be counterbalanced by the cooling effect of a residual North American ice sheet. r ARTICLE IN PRESS

Aim Beringia, far north-eastern Siberia and north-western North America, was largely unglaciated during the Pleistocene. Although this region has long been considered an ice-age refugium for arctic herbs and shrubs, little is known about its role as a refugium for boreal trees and shrubs during the last glacial maximum (LGM, c. 28,000-15,000 calibrated years before present). We examine mapped patterns of pollen percentages to infer whether six boreal tree and shrub taxa (Populus, Larix, Picea, Pinus, Betula, Alnus/Duschekia) survived the harsh glacial conditions within Beringia.Methods Extensive networks of pollen records have the potential to reveal distinctive temporal-spatial patterns that discriminate between local-and longdistance sources of pollen. We assembled pollen records for 149 lake, peat and alluvial sites from the Palaeoenvironmental Arctic Sciences database, plotting pollen percentages at 1000-year time intervals from 21,000 to 6000 calibrated years before present. Pollen percentages are interpreted with an understanding of modern pollen representation and potential sources of long-distance pollen during the glacial maximum. Inferences from pollen data are supplemented by published radiocarbon dates of identified macrofossils, where available. ResultsPollen maps for individual taxa show unique temporal-spatial patterns, but the data for each taxon argue more strongly for survival within Beringia than for immigration from outside regions. The first increase of Populus pollen percentages in the western Brooks Ranges is evidence that Populus trees survived the LGM in central Beringia. Both pollen and macrofossil evidence support Larix survival in western Beringia (WB), but data for Larix in eastern Beringia (EB) are unclear. Given the similar distances of WB and EB to glacial-age boreal forests in temperate latitudes of Asia and North America, the widespread presence of Picea pollen in EB and Pinus pollen in WB indicates that Picea and Pinus survived within these respective regions. Betula pollen is broadly distributed but highly variable in glacial-maximum samples, suggesting that Betula trees or shrubs survived in restricted populations throughout Beringia. Alnus/Duschekia percentages show complex patterns, but generally support a glacial refugium in WB.Main conclusions Our interpretations have several implications, including: (1) the rapid post-glacial migration rate reported for Picea in western Canada may be over estimated, (2) the expansion of trees and shrubs within Beringia should have been nearly contemporaneous with climatic change, (3) boreal trees and shrubs are capable of surviving long periods in relatively small populations (at the lower limit of detection in pollen data) and (4) long-distance migration may not have been the predominant mode of vegetation response to climatic change in Beringia.

Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.

a b s t r a c tWe present a database of late-Quaternary plant macrofossil records for northern Eurasia (from 23 to 180 E and 46 to 76 N) comprising 281 localities, over 2300 samples and over 13,000 individual records. Samples are individually radiocarbon dated or are assigned ages via age models fitted to sequences of calibrated radiocarbon dates within a section. Tree species characteristic of modern northern forests (e.g. Picea, Larix, tree-Betula) are recorded at least intermittently from prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM), through the LGM and Lateglacial, to the Holocene, and some records locate trees close to the limits of the Scandinavian ice sheet, supporting the hypothesis that some taxa persisted in northern refugia during the last glacial cycle. Northern trees show differing spatio-temporal patterns across Siberia: deciduous trees were widespread in the Lateglacial, with individuals occurring across much of their contemporary ranges, while evergreen conifers expanded northwards to their range limits in the Holocene.

The objective biomization method developed by Prentice et al .