<p>Climate change is one of the major challenges for future development in every country including Ukraine where actual warming already has impacted many sectors, population, and ecosystems. Recently, the International Initiative of Coordinated Downscaling Experiment for Europe (Euro-CORDEX) has provided RCM data for 0.1<sup>o</sup> grid. This detailed RCM projection dataset is an excellent basis for estimation of exposure and vulnerability to climate change of different objects and for updating projections for a new National Communication of Ukraine to UNFCCC as well as for Strategy of Ecological Safety and Adaptation to Climate Change in Ukraine.</p><p>The study is focused on the estimation of the essential and special climatic characteristics and their changes in the near future (2021-2040) as well as to the middle (2041-2050) and end (2081-2100) of the century over the base period 1991-2010 for three scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. We used bias-adjusted RCM data for daily maximum, mean, and minimum temperature and precipitation provided via ESGF web-portal. We applied a multi-model ensemble approach with further bias-correction by delta-method for multi-year monthly values of the essential characteristics as well as calculated climatic indices using a gridded observational dataset of E-Obs v.20.0e. Ensembles for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 consisted of 34 RCMs while for RCP2.6 only data of 3 RCMs were available. That is why RCP2.6 is only indicative, while the other two scenarios results have a high confidence level and quartiles and percentiles of the ensemble range are estimated.</p><p>More consistent temporally and spatially results were obtained for temperature projections. Increases relative to the baseline were in the range of 0.5-1.5&#186;C for all the RCPs with a bit higher warming in the North of the country in 2021-2040. In 2041-2060, the increases were 1.0-2.0&#186;C under RCP2.6 and 1.5-2.5&#186;C under RCP8.5, with RCP4.5 in between. By the end of the century 2081-2100 the differences between scenarios became much pronounced: from 1-2&#186;C for RCP2.6 to 4-6&#186;C for RCP8.5.</p><p>Precipitation changes are much complex with high variability across the seasons and the territory. In winter precipitation tends to increase relative to the baseline in most of the country for all the RCPs. In early spring (March) there is a relative decline in the near-future period, especially in RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 but not in RCP4.5. In later periods the decline becomes less and in the higher RCPs, there is a relative increase. Later spring rainfall changes show a decline in RCP2.6 but an increase for the other RCPs. The summer months show a relative decline with all the higher RCPs getting drier over time. In the fall relative changes are mixed, with declines in some months and increases in others.</p><p>Based on these two essential climatic characteristics other important indices were calculated and analyzed: length of vegetation season, tropical nights, summer days, water deficit, aridity/humidity index, etc.</p><p>Obtained projections of climatic characteristics were(will be) used for further agriculture, forest, and human health impact assessments, that will be the basis for the development of adaptation measures to climate change in the frames of the National Adaptation Plan of Ukraine. &#160;</p>
<p>Measurements of precipitation has always had well known difficulties that caused inaccuracies. This is especially acute in Polar regions where prevailing solid precipitation is accomplished with strong winds. Alternatively some indirect methods of precipitation measurements still in development and numerous meteorological instruments have been created on their basis.</p><p>The Akademik Vernadsky station is located in the Antarctic Peninsula region with a large amount of precipitation and &#160;the problem of its measuring has always been relevant here. Although the data of monthly precipitation have been found for Vernadsky (Faraday) station since 1964, the first standard Tretyakov precipitation gauge was set up there only in 1997. But in recent years, several new instruments for indirect precipitation measurement have been installed at the meteorological site. The consistency of their data are the subject for this study.&#160;</p><p>Direct comparison of all measurement devices as well as investigation of their estimations dependencies from other meteorological parameters are analysed and will be presented for the period 2019-2020. Originally various instruments showed huge differences in precipitation estimates. Deep analysis and correction of the measurement results according to weather conditions is obviously needed for bias reduction. But the local features of the extremely heterogeneous underlying surface of the region affect the vertical component of the wind, and can cause the natural small scale precipitation variability.&#160;</p><p>The advantages of indirect methods for precipitation measuring is a high sensitivity to registering even individual falling precipitation particles and, hence, the really high temporal resolution of the data. Therefore, it can be used for investigation of physical atmospheric processes. As an example, the case study of a cyclone with precipitation phase transition over Vernadsky station on December 5-6, 2020 is investigated and will be presented. A comparison of the measurement data of various devices (Tretyakov Precipitation Gauge, Snow Stick, Vaisala PWD22, Lufft WS100, METEK MRR-PRO) and the ERA-5 reanalysis was carried out. A vertical radar MRR-PRO is of special interest as a measuring instrument for polar regions because it can ignore surface snow transport and has proved reliability in the Antarctic environment recently. In Marine Antarctica this device can identify the height of precipitation melting and also show a number of other useful parameters. This complex of precipitation measurement instruments is planned to be used in the frames of the forthcoming YOPP-SH field campayne.</p>
<p><span lang="en-US">Polar amplification has been pronounced in the Arctic with near-surface air temperatures increasing at more than twice the global warming rate d</span>uring the last several decades<span lang="en-US">. At the same time, over Antarctica temperature trends have exhibited a large regional variability. In particular, the </span>Antarctic Peninsula (AP) <span lang="en-US">stands out as having a </span>warming<span lang="en-US"> rate much higher than</span> the rest of the Antarctic ice sheet and other land areas in the Southern Hemisphere (SH)<span lang="en-US">.</span> <span lang="en-US">F</span>uture projections indicate that <span lang="en-US">warming and ice loss will intensify in both polar regions with important impacts</span> globally. In addition to the warming amplification, there has been also an enhancement of the polar water cycle with increase<span lang="en-US">s</span> <span lang="en-US">in </span>poleward moisture transport and precipitation in both polar regions. An important process linking warming and precipitation enhancement is a shift towards more frequent rainfall compared to snowfall<span lang="en-US">. F</span>uture projections show that the rain fraction will significantly increase in coastal Antarctica, especially in the AP. Atmospheric rivers (ARs), long corridors of intense moisture transport from subtropical and mid-latitude regions poleward, are known for <span lang="en-US">their </span>prominent role in <span lang="en-US">both </span>heat and moisture transport with impacts ranging from intense precipitation to temperature records and major melt events in Antarctica.<span lang="en-US"> Limited observations have hampered process understanding and correct representation of these extreme events in models.</span> <span lang="en-US">This presentation will give an overview of the </span>enhanced observations targeting ARs in the A<span lang="en-US">P</span> (<span lang="en-US">including </span>surface meteorology, radiosonde, cloud and precipitation remote sensing, <span lang="en-US">and </span>radiative fluxes) as part of the <span lang="en-US">Year of Polar Prediction (</span>YOPP<span lang="en-US">)</span>-SH international collaborative effort<span lang="en-US">. </span>In-depth analysis of transport of heat and moisture, <span lang="en-US">atmospheric vertical structure, </span>cloud properties<span lang="en-US"> and precipitation phase transition from snowfall to rainfall </span>during selected <span lang="en-US">AR </span>case<span lang="en-US">s</span> will be<span lang="en-US"> presented and compared with ERA5 reanalysis and high-resolution Polar-WRF model simulations</span>.<span lang="en-US"> We will highlight three different local regimes around the AP: large-scale precipitation over the Southern Ocean north of the AP, orographic enhancement of precipitation in the western AP and the role of foehn, cloud/precipitation clearing and temperature increase in the northeastern AP. </span></p>
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