The usage of structured population models can make substantial contributions to public health, particularly for infections where clinical outcomes vary over age. There are three theoretical challenges in implementing such analyses: i) developing an appropriate framework that models both demographic and epidemiological transitions; ii) parameterizing the framework, where parameters may be based on data ranging from the biological course of infection, basic patterns of human demography, specific characteristics of population growth, and details of vaccination regimes implemented; and iii) evaluating public health strategies in the face of changing human demography. We illustrate the general approach by developing a model of rubella in Costa Rica. The demographic profile of this infection is a crucial aspect of its public health impact, and we use a transient perturbation analysis to explore the impact of changing human demography on immunization strategies implemented.
Highlights
Reported to SAGE on immunization and surveillance data quality & use, October 2019.
Improvements since 2011, but gaps persist in data quality (fit-for-purpose) and use.
Improving data quality and use requires better governance, people, tools, and processes.
Better use of existing data needed to continuously improve programme performance.
Report relevant for “data-guided” implementation of the Immunization Agenda 2030.
Since 1941, when Gregg first described the triad of deafness, cataracts and cardiac disease as the classical clinical manifestations of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS), strong efforts have been implemented around the world to achieve effective preventive strategies. In Costa Rica, vaccination against rubella started in 1972 and in 1986, the combined measles, mumps and rubella vaccine was introduced in the national schedule among 1-year-old children. This vaccination strategy shifted the susceptibility to other groups at child-bearing age. To protect this age group, in 2001 Costa Rica implemented a successful national immunization campaign targeting both men and women aged 15-39 years, followed by postpartum vaccination of women who were pregnant when the campaign was implemented. The epidemiological surveillance system of rubella and CRS cases was strengthened and it was integrated with the investigation and notification system of febrile eruptive diseases. We describe the Costa Rican experience, which has led to similar actions in other countries in Latin America. Challenges and strategies in the elimination of rubella and CRS are also discussed.
During the period 2001-2008, 48748253 women of childbearing age were vaccinated in the region of the Americas, 39542253 (81%) of whom were vaccinated in the 6 selected countries. Of these women, 30139 (0.07%) were pregnant or became pregnant ≤1 month after receiving vaccine and were followed up. On the basis of serological evaluation, 2894 (10%) women were classified as susceptible at the time of vaccination; of their pregnancies, 1980 (90%) resulted in a live birth. Sera from 70 (3.5%) of these infants were rubella IgM antibody positive, but none of the infants had features of CRS as a result of rubella vaccination. The maximum theoretical risk for CRS following rubella vaccination of susceptible pregnant women was 0.2%. Conclusions. The results of these studies from 6 select countries provides additional evidence showing an absence of risk of CRS associated with administering rubella vaccine shortly before or during pregnancy.
In the region of the Americas, goals for the elimination of endemic measles and rubella/congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) by the year 2000 and 2010, respectively were established. The successful implementation of measles elimination strategies in the region of the Americas resulted in the interruption of endemic measles transmission in 2002 and tremendous progress toward rubella and CRS elimination. In October 2007, the 27th Pan American Sanitary Conference adopted Resolution CSP27.R2 urging member states to begin documenting and verifying the interruption of endemic transmission of the measles and rubella viruses in the Americas. To ensure a standardized approach for the process of documentation and verification, the Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization (PAHO/WHO) developed a regional plan of action to guide countries and their national commissions as they prepare and consolidate evidence of the interruption of endemic measles and rubella transmission. This article summarizes the plan of action including the essential criteria and components of the guidelines.
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