Summary 1.Interannual variability in climatic conditions should be taken into account in climate change studies in semiarid ecosystems. It may determine differentiation in phenotypic plasticity among populations, with populations experiencing higher environmental heterogeneity showing higher levels of plasticity.2. The ability of populations to evolve key functional traits and plasticity may determine the survival of plant populations under the drier and more variable climate expected for semi-arid ecosystems.3. Working with populations of the semi-arid Chilean shrub Senna candolleana along its entire distribution range, we assessed inter-and intra-population variation in functional traits as well as in their plasticity in response to water availability. We measured morphological and physiological traits related to drought resistance in both field conditions and in a greenhouse experiment, where drought response was evaluated under two water availability treatments.4. All populations responded plastically, but higher precipitation heterogeneity in dry-edge populations seemed to have selected for more plastic genotypes compared to populations growing at mesic sites and with more homogeneous environmental conditions. 5. Synthesis. Our results suggest adaptive plasticity since higher levels of phenotypic plasticity were positively associated with plant performance. However, we did not find evidence for genetic variation for plasticity within populations. To the extent that phenotypic plasticity may play a key role in future persistence, populations at mesic sites may be more vulnerable to climate change due to their lower plasticity and their current limitations to evolve novel norms of reaction. Conversely, although Senna candolleana populations at the dry edge are exposed to higher levels of stress, they may be less susceptible to climate change in view of their greater plasticity. We highlight the need to consider population differentiation in both mean traits and their plasticity to model realistic scenarios of species distribution under climate change.

Plants have evolved different strategies to cope with drought, involving alternative ecophysiologies and different levels of plasticity. These strategies are critical for species of limited distribution, which are especially vulnerable to the current rates of rapid environmental change. The aim of this study was to assess the water strategy of two species with limited distribution, Cneorum tricoccon L. and Rhamnus ludovici-salvatoris Chodat., and evaluate their interpopulation variability along an aridity gradient to estimate their vulnerability to a drier climate. We measured different ecophysiological traits influenced by drought--stomatal conductance, maximum photochemical efficiency of photosynthesis II, carbon isotope ratio and chlorophyll concentration--in two climatically contrasting years, before and during summer drought. Both species were vulnerable to drought at the aridity limit of the gradient, but showed contrasting water strategies: while C. tricoccon was consistent in its water conservation strategy across the aridity gradient, R. ludovici-salvatoris was not, displaying higher and more variable stomatal conductances and being able to increase water-use efficiency at the most xeric sites. Changes in length and intensity of drought events may favor one species' strategy to the detriment of the other: C. tricoccon is more vulnerable to chronic and prolonged droughts, whereas short but acute droughts might have a stronger effect on R. ludovici-salvatoris. In those communities where these two species coexist, such different strategies might lead to changes in community structure under climate change scenarios, with unknown cascade effects on ecosystem functioning.

Plants can respond to climate change by either migrating, adapting to the new conditions or going extinct. Relict plant species of limited distribution can be especially vulnerable as they are usually composed of small and isolated populations, which may reduce their ability to cope with rapidly changing environmental conditions. The aim of this study was to assess the vulnerability of Cneorum tricoccon L. (Cneoraceae), a Mediterranean relict shrub of limited distribution, to a future drier climate. We evaluated population differentiation in functional traits related to drought tolerance across seven representative populations of the species' range. We measured morphological and physiological traits in both the field and the greenhouse under three water availability levels. Large phenotypic differences among populations were found under field conditions. All populations responded plastically to simulated drought, but they differed in mean trait values as well as in the slope of the phenotypic response. Particularly, dry-edge populations exhibited multiple functional traits that favored drought tolerance, such as more sclerophyllous leaves, strong stomatal control but high photosynthetic rates, which increases water use efficiency (iWUE), and an enhanced ability to accumulate sugars as osmolytes. Although drought decreased RGR in all populations, this reduction was smaller for populations from the dry edge. Our results suggest that dry-edge populations of this relict species are well adapted to drought, which could potentially mitigate the species' extinction risk under drier scenarios. Dry-edge populations not only have a great conservation value but can also change expectations from current species' distribution models.

The effect of population size on population genetic diversity and structure has rarely been studied jointly with other factors such as the position of a population within the species’ distribution range or the presence of mutualistic partners influencing dispersal. Understanding these determining factors for genetic variation is critical for conservation of relict plants that are generally suffering from genetic deterioration. Working with 16 populations of the vulnerable relict shrub Cneorum tricoccon throughout the majority of its western Mediterranean distribution range, and using nine polymorphic microsatellite markers, we examined the effects of periphery (peripheral vs. central), population size (large vs. small), and seed disperser (introduced carnivores vs. endemic lizards) on the genetic diversity and population structure of the species. Contrasting genetic variation (H E: 0.04–0.476) was found across populations. Peripheral populations showed lower genetic diversity, but this was dependent on population size. Large peripheral populations showed high levels of genetic diversity, whereas small central populations were less diverse. Significant isolation by distance was detected, indicating that the effect of long‐distance gene flow is limited relative to that of genetic drift, probably due to high selfing rates (FIS = 0.155–0.887), restricted pollen flow, and ineffective seed dispersal. Bayesian clustering also supported the strong population differentiation and highly fragmented structure. Contrary to expectations, the type of disperser showed no significant effect on either population genetic diversity or structure. Our results challenge the idea of an effect of periphery per se that can be mainly explained by population size, drawing attention to the need of integrative approaches considering different determinants of genetic variation. Furthermore, the very low genetic diversity observed in several small populations and the strong among‐population differentiation highlight the conservation value of large populations throughout the species’ range, particularly in light of climate change and direct human threats.

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