Disturbances in space weather can negatively affect several fields, including aviation and aerospace, satellites, oil and gas industries, and electrical systems, leading to economic and commercial losses. Solar flares are the most significant events that can affect the Earth’s atmosphere, thus leading researchers to drive efforts on their forecasting. The related literature is comprehensive and holds several systems proposed for flare forecasting. However, most techniques are tailor-made and designed for specific purposes, not allowing researchers to customize them in case of changes in data input or in the prediction algorithm. This paper proposes a framework to design, train, and evaluate flare prediction systems which present promising results. Our proposed framework involves model and feature selection, randomized hyperparameters optimization, data resampling, and evaluation under operational settings. Compared to baseline predictions, our framework generated some proof-of-concept models with positive recalls between 0.70 and 0.75 for forecasting ≥M class flares up to 96 h ahead while keeping the area under the ROC curve score at high levels.
This work presents the application of the omniaiNet algorithm-an immune-inspired algorithm originally developed to solve single and multi-objective optimization problems-to the reconstruction of phylogenetic trees. The main goal here is to automatically evolve a population of phylogenetic unrooted trees, possibly with distinct topologies, by minimizing at the same time two optimization criteria: the minimum evolution and the mean-squared error. This proposal generates, in a single run, a set of nondominated solutions that represent the trade-offs of the two conflicting objectives, and gives the user the possibility of having distinct explanations for the differences observed at the terminal nodes of the trees. A series of experimental results is also reported in this work, in order to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposal and its capability to overcome the restrictive feedback provided by the application of well-known algorithms for phylogenetic reconstruction, such as the Neighbor Joining. Besides, the methodology presented in this work is compared to the popular NSGA-II algorithm, also modified to solve phylogenetic reconstruction problems.
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