Species endemic to the tropical regions are expected to be vulnerable to future climate change due in part to their relatively narrow climatic niches. In addition, these species are more likely to have responded strongly to past climatic change, and this can be explored through phylogeographic analyses. To test the hypothesis that tropical specialists are more sensitive to climate change than climate generalists, we generated and analyse sequence data from mtDNA and ~2500 exons to compare scales of historical persistence and population fluctuation in two sister species of Australian rainbow skinks: the tropical specialist Carlia johnstonei and the climate generalist C. triacantha. We expect the tropical specialist species to have deeper and finer-scale phylogeographic structure and stronger demographic fluctuations relative to the closely related climate generalist species, which should have had more stable populations through periods of harsh climate in the late Quaternary. Within C. johnstonei, we find that some populations from the northern Kimberley islands are highly divergent from mainland populations. In C. triacantha, one major clade occurs across the deserts and into the mesic Top End, and another occurs primarily in the Kimberley with scattered records eastwards. Where their ranges overlap in the Kimberley, both mitochondrial DNA and nuclear DNA suggest stronger phylogeographic structure and range expansion within the tropical specialist, whereas the climate generalist has minimal structuring and no evidence of recent past range expansion. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that tropical specialists are more sensitive to past climatic change.

BackgroundThe application of target capture with next-generation sequencing now enables phylogenomic analyses of rapidly radiating clades of species. But such analyses are complicated by extensive incomplete lineage sorting, demanding the use of methods that consider this process explicitly, such as the multispecies coalescent (MSC) model. However, the MSC makes strong assumptions about divergence history and population structure, and when using the full Bayesian implementation, current computational limits mean that relatively few loci and samples can be analysed for even modest sized radiations. We explore these issues through analyses of an extensive (> 1000 loci) dataset for the Australian rainbow skinks. This group consists of 3 genera and 41 described species, which likely diversified rapidly in Australia during the mid-late Miocene to occupy rainforest, woodland, and rocky habitats with corresponding diversity of morphology and breeding colouration. Previous phylogenetic analyses of this group have revealed short inter-nodes and high discordance among loci, limiting the resolution of inferred trees. A further complication is that many species have deep phylogeographic structure – this poses the question of how to sample individuals within species for analyses using the MSC.ResultsPhylogenies obtained using concatenation and summary coalescent species tree approaches to the full dataset are well resolved with generally consistent topology, including for previously intractable relationships near the base of the clade. As expected, branch lengths at the tips are substantially overestimated using concatenation. Comparisons of different strategies for sampling haplotypes for full Bayesian MSC analyses (for one clade and using smaller sets of loci) revealed, unexpectedly, that combining haplotypes across divergent phylogeographic lineages yielded consistent species trees.ConclusionsThis study of more than 1000 loci provides a strongly-supported estimate of the phylogeny of the Australian rainbow skinks, which will inform future research on the evolution and taxonomy of this group. Our analyses suggest that species tree estimation with the MSC can be quite robust to violation of the assumption that the individuals representing a taxon are sampled from a panmictic population.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12862-018-1130-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.