SummaryBackgroundUnderweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults.MethodsWe pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5–19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5–19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity).FindingsRegional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (−0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval −0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69–1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64–1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m2 per decade (−0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m2 per decade (0·50–1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4–1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8–6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5–1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7–9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0–12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8–10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4–19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3–14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7–29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5–38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44–117) million girls and 117 (70–178) million boys wor...

SummaryBackgroundRaised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher.MethodsFor this analysis, we pooled national, subnational, or community population-based studies that had measured blood pressure in adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure.FindingsWe pooled 1479 studies that had measured the blood pressures of 19·1 million adults. Global age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure in 2015 was 127·0 mm Hg (95% credible interval 125·7–128·3) in men and 122·3 mm Hg (121·0–123·6) in women; age-standardised mean diastolic blood pressure was 78·7 mm Hg (77·9–79·5) for men and 76·7 mm Hg (75·9–77·6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24·1% (21·4–27·1) in men and 20·1% (17·8–22·5) in women in 2015. Mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure decreased substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia Pacific countries, moving these countries from having some of the highest worldwide blood pressure in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure also decreased in women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East, and north Africa, but the estimated trends in these super-regions had larger uncertainty than in high-income super-regions. By contrast, mean blood pressure might have increased in east and southeast Asia, south Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, central and eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and south Asia had the highest blood pressure levels. Prevalence of raised blood pressure decreased in high-income and some middle-income countries; it remained unchanged elsewhere. The number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1·13 billion in 2015, with the increase largely in low-income and middle-income countries. The global increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure is a net effect of increase due to population growth and ageing, and decrease due to declining age-specific prevalence.InterpretationDuring the past four decades, the highest worldwide blood pressure levels have shifted from high-income countries to low-income countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to opposite trends, while blood pressure has been persistently high in central and eastern Europe.FundingWellcome Trust.

Background Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories. MethodsWe used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30-79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age.Findings The number of people aged 30-79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306-359) million women and 317 (292-344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584-668) million women and 652 (604-698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55-62) of women and 49% (46-52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43-51) of women and 38% (35-41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20-27) for women and 18% (16-21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including

Objective To systematically review quantitative differences in the prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension between developed and developing countries over the past 6 years. Methods We searched Medline [prevalence AND awareness AND treatment AND control AND (hypertension OR high blood pressure)] for population-based surveys. Prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension were compared between men and women, and between developing and developed countries, adjusting for age. The proportions of awareness, treatment and control were defined relative to the total number of hypertensive patients. Results We identified 248 articles, of which 204 did not fulfill inclusion criteria. The remaining articles reported data from 35 countries. Among men, the mean prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension were 32.2, 40.6, 29.2 and 9.8%, respectively, in developing countries and 40.8, 49.2, 29.1 and 10.8%, respectively, in developed countries. Among women, the mean prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension were 30.5, 52.7, 40.5, and 16.2%, respectively, in developing countries and 33.0, 61.7, 40.6 and 17.3%, respectively, in developed countries. After adjusting for age, the prevalence of hypertension among men was lower in developing than in developed countries (difference, S6.5%; 95% confidence interval, S11.3 to S1.8%). Conclusion There were no significant differences in mean prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension between developed and developing countries, except for a higher prevalence among men in developed countries. The prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension in developing countries are coming closer to those in developed countries.

Background-Heart failure (HF) is responsible for a huge burden in hospital care. Our goal was to evaluate the value of N-terminal-pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in predicting death or hospital readmission after discharge of HF patients. Methods and Results-We included 182 patients consecutively admitted to hospital because of decompensated HF.Patients were followed up for 6 months. The primary end point was death or readmission. Twenty-six patients died in hospital. The median admission NT-proBNP level was 6778.5 pg/mL, and the median level at discharge was 4137.0 pg/mL (PϽ0.001). Patients were classified into 3 groups: (1) decreasing NT-proBNP levels by at least 30% (nϭ82), (2) no significant modifications on NT-proBNP levels (nϭ49), and (3) increasing NT-proBNP levels by at least 30% (nϭ25). The primary end point was observed in 42.9% patients. Variables associated with an increased hazard of death and/or hospital readmission in univariate analysis were length of hospitalization, heart rate, signs of volume overload, no use of ACE inhibitors, higher NYHA class at discharge, admission and discharge NT-proBNP, and the change in NT-proBNP levels. The variation in NT-proBNP was the strongest predictor of an adverse outcome. Independent variables associated with an increased risk of readmission or death were signs of volume overload and the change in NT-proBNP levels. Conclusions-Variations in NT-proBNP levels are related to hospital readmission and death within 6 months. NT-proBNP levels are potentially useful in the evaluation of treatment efficacy and might help clinicians in planning discharge of HF patients. Whether therapeutic strategies aimed to lower NT-proBNP levels modify prognosis warrants future investigation.

Abstract-The prediction of cardiovascular risk profile trends in low-income countries and timely action to modulate their transitions are among the greatest global health challenges. Key Words: hypertension Ⅲ prevalence Ⅲ awareness Ⅲ treatment Ⅲ Mozambique Ⅲ Africa H ypertension is the largest risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, growing in prevalence and poorly controlled virtually everywhere. 1 Prevention is possible, although rarely achieved, and treatment can lead to a reduced incidence of complications, including stroke, coronary heart disease, heart failure, and kidney disease. By 2030, 23 million cardiovascular deaths are projected, with Ϸ85% occurring in low-and middle-income countries. 2 Studies published from 1980 through 2003 show that the prevalence of hypertension remained stable or decreased in developed countries and increased in developing countries. 1 Data reported after 2000 on the prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension show no significant cross-sectional differences between developed and developing countries in these indices, except for a 6.5% lower mean prevalence in developing than in developed countries among men. 3 However, recent epidemiological data on the prevalence of high blood pressure from African national representative samples are scarce. 1,3 Some of the greatest challenges in global health are predicting how the cardiovascular risk profile of populations from low-and middle-income countries will develop and taking timely action to modulate their transition, namely in the sub-Saharan African countries at the earliest stage of the epidemiological transition, 4 taking into account the evolving paradigms of diseases of affluence 5 and the dynamic character of the changes between and within countries. 4 In contrast with body mass index and cholesterol, blood pressure is not correlated with economic factors, and differences between urban and rural areas have varied, sometimes even taking opposite directions. 5 We aimed to quantify the prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of arterial hypertension in the Mozambican adult population and to compare these estimates between urban and rural areas of residence within the country. MethodsFor the present community-based cross-sectional study, a sample of adults aged 25 to 64 years was assembled using the sampling frame

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Background and Purpose-Already a major cause of death and disability in high-income countries, the burden of stroke in sub-Saharan Africa is also expected to be high. However, specific stroke data are scarce from resource-poor countries. We studied the incidence, characteristics, and short-term consequences of hospitalizations for stroke in Maputo, Mozambique. Methods-Over 12 months, comprehensive data from all local patients admitted to any hospital in Maputo with a new stroke event were prospectively captured according to the World Health Organization's STEPwise approach to stroke surveillance program. Disability levels (pre-and posthospital discharge) and short-term case-fatality (in-hospital and 28 days) were also studied. Results-Overall, 651 new stroke events (mean age 59.1Ϯ13.2 years and 53% men) were captured by the registry with 601 confirmed by CT scan (83.4%) or necropsy (8.9%). Crude and adjusted (world reference population) annual incidence rates of stroke were 148.7 per 100 000 and 260.1 per 100 000 aged Ն25 years, respectively. Of these, 531 (81.6%) represented a first-ever stroke event comprising 254 ischemic (42.0%) and 217 (36.1%) an intracerebral hemorrhage. Before admission, 561 patients (86.2%) had hypertension and 271 (41.6%) had symptoms for Ͼ24 hours. In-hospital and 28-day case-fatality were 33.3% and 49.6% (72.3% for hemorrhagic stroke), respectively. From almost no preadmission disability, 64.4% of 370 survivors at 28 days had moderate-to-severe disability. Conclusions-The burden of disease associated with stroke is high in Maputo, emphasizing the importance of primary prevention and improvement of the standards of care in a developing country under epidemiological transition. (Stroke.