An analysis of drought in western Iran from 1966 to 2000 is presented using monthly precipitation data observed at 140 gauges uniformly distributed over the area. Drought conditions have been assessed by means of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). To study the long-term drought variability the principal component analysis was applied to the SPI field computed on 12-month time scale. The analysis shows that applying an orthogonal rotation to the first two principal component patterns, two distinct sub-regions having different climatic variability may be identified. Results have been compared to those obtained for the largescale using re-analysis data suggesting a satisfactory agreement. Furthermore, the extension of the large-scale analysis to a longer period shows that the spatial patterns and the associated time variability of drought are subjected to noticeable changes. Finally, the relationship between hydrological droughts in the two sub-regions and El Niño Southern Oscillation events has been investigated finding that there is not clear evidence for a link between the two phenomena.

Abstract. Distinction between drought and aridity is crucial to understand water scarcity processes. Drought indices are used for drought identification and drought severity characterisation. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) are the most known drought indices. In this study, they are compared with the modified PDSI for Mediterranean conditions (MedPDSI) and the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). MedPDSI results from the soil water balance of an olive crop, thus real evapotranspiration is considered, while SPEI uses potential (climatic) evapotranspiration. Similarly to the SPI, SPEI can be computed at various time scales. Aiming at understanding possible impacts of climate change, prior to compare the drought indices, a trend analysis relative to precipitation and temperature in 27 weather stations of Portugal was performed for the period 1941 to 2006. A trend for temperature increase was observed for some weather stations and trends for decreasing precipitation in March and increasing in October were also observed for some locations. Comparisons of the SPI and SPEI at 9-and 12-month time scales, the PDSI and Med-PDSI were performed for the same stations and period. SPI and SPEI produce similar results for the same time scales concerning drought occurrence and severity. PDSI and Med-PDSI correlate well between them and the same happened for SPI and SPEI. PDSI and MedPDSI identify more severe droughts than SPI or SPEI and identify drought occurrence earlier than these indices. This behaviour is likely to be related with the fact that a water balance is performed with PDSI and MedPDSI, which better approaches the supplydemand balance.

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Loglinear modeling for three-dimensional contingency tables was used with data from 14 rainfall stations located in Alentejo and Algarve region, southern of Portugal, for short term prediction of drought severity classes. Loglinear models were fitted to drought class transitions derived from Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) time series computed in a 12-month time scale. Quasi-association loglinear models proved to be the most adequate in fitting all the 14 data series. Odds and respective confidence intervals were calculated in order to understand the drought evolution and to estimate the drought class transition probabilities. The validation of the predictions was performed for the 2004-2006 drought, particularly for periods when the drought was initiating and establishing, and when it was dissipating. Despite the contingency tables of drought class transitions present a strong diagonal tendency, results of three-dimensional loglinear modeling present good results when comparing predicted and observed drought classes with 1 and 2 months lead for those 14 sites. Only for a few cases predictions did not fully match the observed drought severity, mainly for 2-month lead and when the SPI values are near the limit of the severity class. It could be concluded that loglinear prediction of drought class transitions is a useful tool for short term drought warning. ª

Using the SPI relative to 67 years data sets, a Markov chains approach has been utilized for several locations in Alentejo, southern Portugal, to characterize the stochasticity of droughts, which allowed predicting the transition from a class of severity to another up to 3 months ahead. Markov models were applied using both the homogeneous and nonhomogeneous formulations. The results of the application of the Markov models are presented and discussed, showing in particular the usefulness of adopting a nonhomogeneous formulation, which allows to differentiate predictions in relation to the initial month considered, thus understanding the probable evolution of a drought as influenced by the climate and, in particular, the seasonality of rainfall. However, these results, which are promising in view of drought management, require further developments and to be associated with other predictive tools of stochastic or physical nature. Possible approaches on using predictions of drought class transitions in view of drought risk management are also discussed.