Objective To assess the long-term risk factors predicting residual/ recurrent cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN 2-3) and time to recurrence after large loop excision of the transformation zone (LLETZ).Design Retrospective study. Setting Colposcopy clinic.Population 242 women with CIN 2-3 treated between 1996 and 2006 and followed up until June 2016.Methods Age, margins, and high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) were estimated using Cox proportional hazard and unconditional logistic regression models. The cumulative probability of treatment failure was estimated by Kaplan-Meier analysis.Main outcome measure Histologically confirmed CIN 2-3, HR-HPV, margins, age.Results CIN 2-3 was associated with HR-HPV (HR = 30.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.80-246.20), age >35 years (HR = 5.53, 95% CI = 1.22-25.13), and margins (HR = 7.31, 95% CI = 1.60-33.44). HR-HPV showed a sensitivity of 88.8% and a specificity of 80%. Ecto + /endocervical + (16.7%), uncertain (19.4%) and ecto À /endocervical + margins (9.1%) showed a higher risk of recurrence (odds ratio [OR] = 13.20, 95% CI = 1.02-170.96; OR = 15.84, 95% CI = 3.02-83.01; and OR = 6.60, 95% CI = 0.88-49.53, respectively). Women with involved margins and/or who were HR-HPV positive had more treatment failure than those who were HR-HPV negative or had clear margins (P-log-rank <0.001).Conclusions HR-HPV and margins seem essential for stratifying post-LLETZ risk, and enable personalised management. Given that clear margins present a lower risk, a large excision may be indicated in older women to reduce the risk.Keywords Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, HPV, margin status, recurrence.Tweetable abstract After LLETZ for CIN 2-3, recurrences appear more often in women with positive HR-HPV and involved margins and aged over 35. Fern andez-Montol ı et al.

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