The performance of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average )ARIMA) model and Double and Holt-winters exponential smoothing techniques for forecasting the consumption of particleboard in Iran are compared. Annual time series data from 1978 to 2009 in the modeling process, and observations from 2010 to 2012 were used to check the accuracy of the models' forecasting performance. Also, the models' performances were calculated in terms of RMSE criterion, and the consumption of particleboard in Iran was forecasted up to the year 2017 using the most appropriate model. The results of comparing different forecast models showed that the ARMA (2,1) model yielded the lowest RMSE value compared to the other two models, which makes it more appropriate for the prediction of consumption of particleboard in Iran. Results also revealed that there might be an increasing trend in the consumption of particleboard, i.e., an average annual increasing rate calculated as 5% for particleboard. Thus, it was predicted that the consumption of particleboard would increase from 901,652 m 3 in 2012 to 1,178,320 m 3 in 2017.
Dynamic supply and demand equations for particleboard using a three-stage squares simulation (3SLS) were estimated. Empirical data included annual observations over the period of 1976 to 2006. The stationary character of the data was checked by applying the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Test. The results revealed that in the demand function, variables such as particleboard price, the gross national product (GNP) in the previous year (lagged quantity), and the MDF price were significant at 0.05%. In the supply function, variables such as the price of medium density fiberboard (MDF), demand for particleboard in the previous year, the product/raw material price ratio in the previous year, and particleboard imports in the previous year were shown to be significant at 0.05%. Also price, income, and cross elasticities of demand for particleboard were calculated as -0.65, 0.32, and 1.63, respectively, indicating that this commodity is a necessary and normal good and MDF is a substitute for it.
Corrugated board is considered as a valuable commodity for packaging at both international and domestic markets. Therefore, for the development of corrugated board production industry in Iran and understanding the variation in demand and supply for this product, it is necessary to identify the consumption and production patterns as well as the most important and effective variables on its status. Based on this information, forecasting the future situation will be possible. In this study, due to the existence of reciprocal relation between demand and supply, the simultaneous equations system was used. Coefficients of the model were estimated applying 3-stage least squares (3SLS) procedure with the time series data from the duration of 1981 to 2007. The study results indicated that in the demand function, the variables including, intercept, GNP in previous period, population, consumer price index (CPI), added value of industrial sector (AVOIS), the war dummy is significantly influential at 0.05% level. However, the price variable did not show any effect that indicates that this product is a necessity good. In the supply function, intercept, consumption, production and imports quantities in previous period, inflation rate and price in previous period simultaneously influence corrugated board production. The absence of any relation between product price/raw material price ratio and production also proves that the corrugated board is a necessary good, because the impacts of explanatory variables on its supply and demand are consistent with economic theories.
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