Conventionally, risk assessment methods suffer from ignoring the dynamic nature of risks. Therefore, this study demonstrates an interactive approach to risks and prioritizes risks based on their overall cyclic events acting on the attainment of the goals of a project during its life cycle. Hence, the risks of the project of gas condensate storage tank construction (G.C.S.T.C) are first identified and evaluated by using a fuzzy inference system (F.I.S); then, the created risk network is simulated over the project life cycle by using the results of the F.I.S; finally, the impacts of the risks are assessed by applying purposeful indicators. Based on the results, the risk of the increase in the economic sanctions most significantly impacts on achieving the project goals, and lack of the governmental support, the variation of the fiscal governmental policy, high inflation rates, and sharp changes in the exchange rate are considered as the important risks. The results also demonstrated that these five risks improved the attainment of the project goals by more than 55%, while the total improvement on the 21 other risks enhanced the achievement of the project goals by less than 45%.
Purpose This study aims to investigate the interactive network of risk factors in the construction and preparation project of gas condensate storage tanks in the presence of sanctions. Design/methodology/approach First, this paper determines and weighs the project goals using the stepwise weight assessment ratio analysis method. Then, this study identifies and categorizes the project risks and form the network of the project risk factors based on the weight of the project goals by using interpretive structural modeling and decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory techniques. Findings The results of the current work divide the risks of such projects into five financial, technical, managerial and contractual, social and environmental and political categories. The analyzes indicate the complicated risk network and the cause-and-effect interactions between the risks. The findings identify the financial and political risk clusters as the most effective category and select the technical, managerial and contractual and social and environmental risk clusters as the most affected categories. The technical risk has the least important among the others under the sanction conditions. Originality/value This paper model the domino effect of the risk factors considering the complicated interactions and the cause-and-effect relations in a network. Moreover, this study discusses the importance of the risk factors in oil and gas megaprojects in the presence of sanctions. Finally, this paper applies the proposed approach to a real case study in the field of gas projects.
Abstract-Nowadays, no industry can move in global markets individually and independently of competitors because they are part of a supply chain and the success of each member of the chain influences the others. In this paper, the issue of three-level supply chain with several products, one manufacturer, one distributor, and several customers is reviewed. In the first part of the chain, one type of vehicle and in the second part of the chain, two types of vehicles are used. The proposed model of this paper is a mixed integer planning integrated model. The model is considered to minimize costs, including transportation, inventory, and shortage penalty cost. This paper is about the proposed approach for development of quantitative models in the field of three-level supply chain and theoretical research and presents a case study of sending produced rolls by Mobarakeh Steel Structure Company to "Sazeh Gostar Saipa (S.G.S)" and then to suppliers. The solution proposed in this paper is imperialist competitive algorithm which is solved in 20 different sizes, and the results in small size are compared with GAMS.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.